As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Somaliland at 10.0% in Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? — $1.83M traded so far.
The leading outcome, Somaliland, is priced at 10.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.5 pts; past month: +2.0 pts.
Since December 31, 2025, Somaliland has traded between 5.5% and 74.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 9.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 9.0% |
Somaliland is favored at 10.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somaliland | 10¢ | 10.0% | — | $124.3K | 6.8% |
| Jordan | 8¢ | 8.5% | -0.5 pts | $13.8K | 0.8% |
| Lebanon | 7¢ | 7.0% | -1.5 pts | $90.1K | 4.9% |
| Qatar | 6¢ | 6.5% | +1.6 pts | $9.0K | 0.5% |
| Pakistan | 6¢ | 6.5% | +0.2 pts | $9.5K | 0.5% |
| Syria | 6¢ | 5.8% | — | $170.6K | 9.3% |
| Oman | 5¢ | 5.5% | — | $187.1K | 10.2% |
| Egypt | 5¢ | 4.7% | — | $7.5K | 0.4% |
| Kuwait | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $87.9K | 4.8% |
| Saudi Arabia | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $449.8K | 24.6% |
| Azerbaijan | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $192.4K | 10.5% |
| Turkey | 4¢ | 3.9% | +0.1 pts | $489.3K | 26.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 13¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.83M has been traded on this event in total, $358 of it in the last 24 hours, across 12 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 881 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smoggy-Sunglasses | No | 881 | $793 |
| Angry-Evaluation | No | 585 | $526 |
| Impartial-Sailboat | Yes | 555 | $56 |
| Glittering-Laparoscope | No | 500 | $450 |
| Vicious-Perspective | Yes | 447 | $45 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 412 | $370 |
| Functional-Experience | Yes | 398 | $40 |
| Vengeful-Netsuke | No | 330 | $297 |
| Giving-Bottomline | No | 322 | $290 |
| Unwilling-Instrument | Yes | 280 | $28 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.7% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.7% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 01:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 09:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.3% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 12:21 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.7% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 11:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $5 |
| Oct 20, 08:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 08:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.4% | $91 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Somaliland at 10.0%. Next is Jordan at 8.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-country-will-join-abraham-accords-before-2027?via=bro
$1.83M in total volume, with $358 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Somaliland, priced at 10.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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