As of October 24, 2026, 07:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Hodge Conjecture at 24.0% in Which math problems will AI solve in 2026? — $61.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Hodge Conjecture, is priced at 24.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -0.5 pts.
Since September 09, 2026, Hodge Conjecture has traded between 14.0% and 63.5%. It opened at 60.0% and last traded at 24.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 21.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 25.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 22.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 22.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 22.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 24.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 24.0% |
Hodge Conjecture is favored at 24.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hodge Conjecture | 24¢ | 24.0% | — | $17.6K | 28.5% |
| Ramsey Number R(5,5) | 18¢ | 18.0% | — | $1.5K | 2.3% |
| Hadwiger-Nelson Problem | 16¢ | 16.5% | — | $3.0K | 4.8% |
| Hadamard Matrix Conjecture | 14¢ | 14.5% | — | $5.4K | 8.7% |
| Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer | 13¢ | 13.0% | -1.0 pts | $13.4K | 21.7% |
| Beal's Conjecture | 13¢ | 13.0% | — | $2.8K | 4.5% |
| Twin Prime Conjecture | 8¢ | 8.5% | — | $988 | 1.6% |
| Strong Goldbach Conjecture | 8¢ | 8.0% | — | $2.9K | 4.6% |
| Odd Perfect Number | 8¢ | 8.0% | — | $1.6K | 2.7% |
| Yang-Mills | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $1.2K | 2.0% |
| Collatz Conjecture | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $2.0K | 3.2% |
| Riemann Hypothesis | 7¢ | 7.0% | — | $6.3K | 10.2% |
| Legendre's Conjecture | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $1.4K | 2.3% |
| P versus NP | 4¢ | 4.0% | -0.1 pts | $1.7K | 2.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 22¢ / ask 26¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$61.8K has been traded on this event in total, $96 of it in the last 24 hours, across 14 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab announces a solution to the problem specified in the title by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem specified in the title has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from the Clay Mathematics Institute or any other organization is required. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 958 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 958 | $230 |
| Reliable-Interior | Yes | 922 | $221 |
| Lopsided-Rhetoric | No | 726 | $552 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 705 | $169 |
| Playful-Circulation | No | 506 | $385 |
| Extroverted-Development | No | 502 | $381 |
| Hard-Boat | No | 422 | $321 |
| Valid-Standard | No | 230 | $175 |
| These-Dramaturge-Detail | No | 164 | $125 |
| Opulent-Wardrobe-Aggradation | No | 147 | $112 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 10:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 10:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 02:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 76.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 01:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $17 |
| Oct 21, 01:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $23 |
| Oct 21, 06:08 AM ET | No | SELL | 75.0% | $17 |
| Oct 21, 04:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.7% | $7 |
| Oct 20, 11:53 PM ET | No | SELL | 75.0% | $6 |
| Oct 20, 02:36 PM ET | No | SELL | 76.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Hodge Conjecture at 24.0%. Next is Ramsey Number R(5,5) at 18.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-math-problems-will-ai-solve-in-2026?via=bro
$61.8K in total volume, with $96 traded in the last 24 hours across 14 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro.
Hodge Conjecture, priced at 24.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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