Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Hodge Conjecture at 35.5% in Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? — $276.3K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.1K.
Leading outcome
Hodge Conjecture
36%
A 35.5% price implies roughly a 36-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −1.5 pts7D +3.0 pts30D −17.0 pts
Hodge Conjecture35.5%
No solution by Dec 31, 202735.0%
Bid
35¢
Ask
36¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 09, 2026: 20.5% – 73.5% · Opened at 26.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
Category
AI, Math, Tech, Science, CMI, Millennium Prize, AI Achievements, AI Benchmarks
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$276.3K
Volume (24h)
$1.1K
Liquidity
$40.4K
Markets
6
Leading outcome
Hodge Conjecture — 35.5%
Resolution source
https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Hodge Conjecture, is priced at 35.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: +3.0 pts; past month: -17.0 pts.

Since September 09, 2026, Hodge Conjecture has traded between 20.5% and 73.5%. It opened at 26.5% and last traded at 37.0%.

DayClose
Oct 14, 202631.5%
Oct 15, 202631.5%
Oct 16, 202632.5%
Oct 18, 202631.0%
Oct 19, 202630.5%
Oct 20, 202629.5%
Oct 23, 202637.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Hodge Conjecture is favored at 35.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Hodge Conjecture36¢35.5%-1.5 pts$86.8K31.4%
No solution by Dec 31, 202735¢35.0%—$84.8K30.7%
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer16¢16.5%—$38.7K14.0%
Yang-Mills10¢9.6%+0.3 pts$26.7K9.7%
P versus NP2¢2.0%—$15.2K5.5%
Riemann Hypothesis2¢1.8%—$24.0K8.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 35¢ / ask 36¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$276.3K has been traded on this event in total, $1.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 12,596 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No12,596$8.1K
Each-JeansYes4,882$1.7K
Active-BroadNo2,000$1.3K
Silky-GeometryYes1,708$606
Better-ForeheadYes1,248$443
Spanish-CossetYes1,156$410
Charming-GrapeNo955$616
Turbulent-Decline-RouterNo949$612
Grubby-ChandelierYes790$281
Polite-Clover-InterpretationYes667$237

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $446 at 68.0%SELL No — $192 at 64.0%BUY No — $83 at 83.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 01:21 PM ETYesBUY35.0%$5
Oct 24, 01:21 PM ETYesBUY35.0%$4
Oct 24, 01:07 PM ETNoSELL65.0%$9
Oct 24, 12:53 PM ETNoSELL63.0%$3
Oct 24, 12:51 PM ETNoSELL64.0%$3
Oct 24, 12:51 PM ETNoSELL66.0%$3
Oct 24, 11:39 AM ETNoBUY63.0%$32
Oct 24, 11:27 AM ETYesBUY35.0%$5
Oct 24, 11:27 AM ETYesBUY35.0%$4
Oct 24, 11:22 AM ETYesBUY35.0%$4

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Hodge Conjecture at 35.5%. Next is No solution by Dec 31, 2027 at 35.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-millennium-prize-problem-will-ai-solve-next?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next??

$276.3K in total volume, with $1.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.

When does Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/.

What is the most likely outcome of Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?, according to Polymarket traders?

Hodge Conjecture, priced at 35.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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