As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Hodge Conjecture at 35.5% in Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? — $276.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Hodge Conjecture, is priced at 35.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: +3.0 pts; past month: -17.0 pts.
Since September 09, 2026, Hodge Conjecture has traded between 20.5% and 73.5%. It opened at 26.5% and last traded at 37.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 31.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 31.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 31.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 37.0% |
Hodge Conjecture is favored at 35.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hodge Conjecture | 36¢ | 35.5% | -1.5 pts | $86.8K | 31.4% |
| No solution by Dec 31, 2027 | 35¢ | 35.0% | — | $84.8K | 30.7% |
| Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer | 16¢ | 16.5% | — | $38.7K | 14.0% |
| Yang-Mills | 10¢ | 9.6% | +0.3 pts | $26.7K | 9.7% |
| P versus NP | 2¢ | 2.0% | — | $15.2K | 5.5% |
| Riemann Hypothesis | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $24.0K | 8.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 35¢ / ask 36¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$276.3K has been traded on this event in total, $1.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 12,596 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 12,596 | $8.1K |
| Each-Jeans | Yes | 4,882 | $1.7K |
| Active-Broad | No | 2,000 | $1.3K |
| Silky-Geometry | Yes | 1,708 | $606 |
| Better-Forehead | Yes | 1,248 | $443 |
| Spanish-Cosset | Yes | 1,156 | $410 |
| Charming-Grape | No | 955 | $616 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | No | 949 | $612 |
| Grubby-Chandelier | Yes | 790 | $281 |
| Polite-Clover-Interpretation | Yes | 667 | $237 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 01:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 65.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 12:53 PM ET | No | SELL | 63.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 12:51 PM ET | No | SELL | 64.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 12:51 PM ET | No | SELL | 66.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 11:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 63.0% | $32 |
| Oct 24, 11:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 11:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Hodge Conjecture at 35.5%. Next is No solution by Dec 31, 2027 at 35.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-millennium-prize-problem-will-ai-solve-next?via=bro
$276.3K in total volume, with $1.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/.
Hodge Conjecture, priced at 35.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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