As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 at 88.5% in Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal? — $569.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026, is priced at 88.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: +10.0 pts.
Since July 08, 2026, No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 has traded between 35.0% and 88.5%. It opened at 44.5% and last traded at 88.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 88.5% |
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 is favored at 88.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 | 88¢ | 88.5% | — | $400.3K | 70.3% |
| December | 8¢ | 7.6% | — | $25.6K | 4.5% |
| November | 4¢ | 3.7% | +0.1 pts | $13.0K | 2.3% |
| October | 1¢ | 0.8% | -0.2 pts | $28.4K | 5.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 88¢ / ask 89¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$569.6K has been traded on this event in total, $317 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 13,353 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whimsical-Terminal | Yes | 13,353 | $11.8K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 11,230 | $1.3K |
| Ideal-Arch | No | 5,191 | $597 |
| Ultimate-Brushfire | Yes | 1,270 | $1.1K |
| Insubstantial-Want | Yes | 1,056 | $935 |
| Scarce-Rabbi | Yes | 858 | $760 |
| Inferior-Implement | No | 857 | $99 |
| Extroverted-Development | No | 705 | $81 |
| Remarkable-Conifer-Candelabra | Yes | 593 | $525 |
| Zigzag-Nun-Citrus | No | 517 | $59 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:46 AM ET | No | SELL | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:45 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 88.0% | $232 |
| Oct 23, 11:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 11.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 10:01 AM ET | No | SELL | 11.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 02:51 AM ET | No | SELL | 11.0% | $44 |
| Oct 21, 07:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 11.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 06:59 PM ET | No | BUY | 12.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 06:59 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.4% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 06:59 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.6% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 06:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 89.0% | $940 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 at 88.5%. Next is December at 7.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-month-will-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return-to-normal-20260702155718114?via=bro
$569.6K in total volume, with $317 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026, priced at 88.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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