As of October 24, 2026, 06:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 51.5% in Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026? — $189.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, is priced at 51.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.0 pts; past month: +11.0 pts.
Since July 23, 2026, Spider-Man: Brand New Day has traded between 23.5% and 67.5%. It opened at 67.5% and last traded at 51.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 51.5% |
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is favored at 51.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 52¢ | 51.5% | — | $89.8K | 47.3% |
| Movie B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 46¢ | 46.5% | — | $87.4K | 46.0% |
| Toy Story 5 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.7K | 1.4% |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $482 | 0.3% |
| Dune: Messiah | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $8.3K | 4.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 50¢ / ask 53¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$189.9K has been traded on this event in total, $6.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 20 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 14,440 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 14,440 | $7.0K |
| Gloomy-Battery | Yes | 7,310 | $3.8K |
| Glaring-Epee | Yes | 5,027 | $2.6K |
| Stiff-Nightgown | Yes | 2,642 | $1.4K |
| Decimal-Covariate | Yes | 2,279 | $1.2K |
| Accurate-Spirit | No | 1,230 | $597 |
| Natural-Vacation | No | 1,060 | $514 |
| Questionable-Flame | No | 750 | $364 |
| Ripe-Term | Yes | 500 | $257 |
| Wry-Meatloaf | No | 446 | $216 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 53.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 02:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 53.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:30 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 46.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 12:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 51.0% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 11:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 53.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 11:14 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 53.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 11:13 AM ET | No | BUY | 47.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 10:30 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 52.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 10:30 AM ET | No | SELL | 51.0% | $33 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 51.5%. Next is Movie B at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-movie-has-2nd-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026-20260722231944202?via=bro
$189.9K in total volume, with $6.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 20 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day, priced at 51.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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