As of October 24, 2026, 08:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Toy Story 5 at 95.5% in Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026? — $43.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Toy Story 5, is priced at 95.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: +1.0 pts.
Since July 23, 2026, Toy Story 5 has traded between 62.5% and 95.5%. It opened at 62.5% and last traded at 95.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.5% |
Toy Story 5 is favored at 95.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toy Story 5 | 96¢ | 95.5% | — | $29.7K | 67.7% |
| Movie B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Dune: Messiah | 3¢ | 3.1% | +0.4 pts | $2.9K | 6.6% |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 2¢ | 2.2% | -0.1 pts | $2.8K | 6.5% |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | 0¢ | 0.4% | +0.1 pts | $2.3K | 5.1% |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $2.2K | 5.1% |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.3K | 5.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 95¢ / ask 96¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$43.9K has been traded on this event in total, $210 of it in the last 24 hours, across 21 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,089 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 3,089 | $139 |
| Starry-Boudoir | Yes | 2,650 | $2.5K |
| Ample-Instance | Yes | 2,247 | $2.1K |
| Humble-Vestment | Yes | 1,237 | $1.2K |
| Hideous-Racer | No | 945 | $43 |
| Known-Use | No | 746 | $34 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 625 | $597 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 600 | $27 |
| Quizzical-Hire | No | 555 | $25 |
| Past-Truth | No | 249 | $11 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.5% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 03:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 04:01 AM ET | No | SELL | 4.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 11:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.4% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:22 AM ET | No | BUY | 5.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 01:22 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.4% | $73 |
| Oct 23, 01:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.8% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 07:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.8% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 02:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Toy Story 5 at 95.5%. Next is Movie B at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-movie-has-3rd-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026-20260722232204873?via=bro
$43.9K in total volume, with $210 traded in the last 24 hours across 21 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026.
Toy Story 5, priced at 95.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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