As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Avengers: Doomsday at 55.5% in Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026? — $278.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Avengers: Doomsday, is priced at 55.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: -5.0 pts; past month: +0.5 pts.
Since April 17, 2026, Avengers: Doomsday has traded between 22.5% and 88.0%. It opened at 79.5% and last traded at 63.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 61.5% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 61.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 63.0% |
Avengers: Doomsday is favored at 55.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avengers: Doomsday | 56¢ | 55.5% | -2.5 pts | $139.1K | 50.0% |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 41¢ | 41.0% | — | $104.8K | 37.7% |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $3.4K | 1.2% |
| Dune: Messiah | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $5.1K | 1.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 55¢ / ask 56¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$278.1K has been traded on this event in total, $385 of it in the last 24 hours, across 31 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week. If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution source: https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 40,015 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 40,015 | $17.8K |
| Glaring-Epee | Yes | 21,569 | $12.0K |
| Sociable-Rooster | Yes | 8,375 | $4.6K |
| Monumental-Union | Yes | 6,594 | $3.7K |
| Ample-Instance | No | 6,370 | $2.8K |
| Agile-Selfesteem | Yes | 1,374 | $762 |
| Unlined-Pole | No | 1,329 | $591 |
| Accurate-Spirit | Yes | 1,000 | $555 |
| Kooky-Snowmobiling | Yes | 957 | $531 |
| Exemplary-Vintner | Yes | 941 | $522 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:21 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 55.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:21 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 55.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 06:21 PM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 01:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 59.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 43.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 41.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 09:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 56.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 08:54 AM ET | No | SELL | 57.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 56.0% | $53 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Avengers: Doomsday at 55.5%. Next is Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 41.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-week-in-2026?via=bro
$278.1K in total volume, with $385 traded in the last 24 hours across 31 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office.
Avengers: Doomsday, priced at 55.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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