As of October 24, 2026, 08:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Other at 50.0% in Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President? — $14.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Other, is priced at 50.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.0 pts; past week: +0.0 pts; past month: +0.0 pts.
Other is favored at 50.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 38¢ | 38.5% | +4.0 pts | $1.8K | 12.5% |
| Rahm Emanuel | 21¢ | 21.0% | — | $1.3K | 9.1% |
| Andy Beshear | 18¢ | 17.5% | — | $2.5K | 17.3% |
| Gavin Newsom | 16¢ | 15.5% | +4.8 pts | $4.4K | 30.9% |
| Josh Shapiro | 15¢ | 15.0% | -8.6 pts | $603 | 4.2% |
| Kamala Harris | 12¢ | 12.0% | — | $690 | 4.8% |
| Ro Khanna | 12¢ | 11.5% | +2.0 pts | $1.0K | 7.1% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 3¢ | 2.9% | — | $579 | 4.1% |
| Jon Ossoff | 2¢ | 1.9% | — | $474 | 3.3% |
| Jon Stewart | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $505 | 3.5% |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0¢ | 0.3% | -0.1 pts | $447 | 3.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 100¢ (bid 0¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$14.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 12 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 452 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 452 | $226 |
| Broken-Idea | Yes | 123 | $62 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 93 | $47 |
| Impish-Downfall | Yes | 65 | $33 |
| Velvety-Burn | Yes | 47 | $23 |
| Grown-Fence | Yes | 39 | $20 |
| Victorious-Tape-Max | Yes | 20 | $10 |
| Blind-Leaf | Yes | 19 | $9 |
| Admirable-Trust | Yes | 16 | $8 |
| Miniature-Drive | Yes | 10 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 08:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.5% | $9 |
| Oct 19, 08:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $9 |
| Oct 19, 08:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $2 |
| Oct 14, 10:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 17.7% | $0 |
| Oct 14, 10:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.1% | $0 |
| Oct 14, 10:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 81.5% | $2 |
| Oct 14, 10:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.5% | $0 |
| Oct 14, 05:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.5% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 10:58 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 10:58 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.5% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Other at 50.0%. Next is Pete Buttigieg at 38.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-of-these-democrats-will-be-the-first-to-announce-a-run-for-president-20260709150125604?via=bro
$14.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Other, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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