Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Other at 50.0% in Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President? — $14.3K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
Other
50%
A 50.0% price implies roughly a 50-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.0 pts7D +0.0 pts30D +0.0 pts
Other50.0%
Pete Buttigieg38.5%
Bid
0¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
100¢
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Market facts

Event data
Event
Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
Category
Politics, Elections, President, Celebrities
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$14.3K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$52.0K
Markets
12
Leading outcome
Other — 50.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Other, is priced at 50.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.0 pts; past week: +0.0 pts; past month: +0.0 pts.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Other is favored at 50.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Other50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Pete Buttigieg38¢38.5%+4.0 pts$1.8K12.5%
Rahm Emanuel21¢21.0%—$1.3K9.1%
Andy Beshear18¢17.5%—$2.5K17.3%
Gavin Newsom16¢15.5%+4.8 pts$4.4K30.9%
Josh Shapiro15¢15.0%-8.6 pts$6034.2%
Kamala Harris12¢12.0%—$6904.8%
Ro Khanna12¢11.5%+2.0 pts$1.0K7.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez3¢2.9%—$5794.1%
Jon Ossoff2¢1.9%—$4743.3%
Jon Stewart0¢0.3%—$5053.5%
Stephen A. Smith0¢0.3%-0.1 pts$4473.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 100¢ (bid 0¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$14.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 12 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 452 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No452$226
Broken-IdeaYes123$62
Belated-GlueYes93$47
Impish-DownfallYes65$33
Velvety-BurnYes47$23
Grown-FenceYes39$20
Victorious-Tape-MaxYes20$10
Blind-LeafYes19$9
Admirable-TrustYes16$8
Miniature-DriveYes10$5

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $138 at 69.0%SELL No — $60 at 81.4%SELL No — $60 at 79.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 19, 08:19 PM ETNoBUY85.5%$9
Oct 19, 08:19 PM ETNoBUY89.0%$9
Oct 19, 08:19 PM ETYesBUY23.0%$2
Oct 14, 10:10 AM ETYesSELL17.7%$0
Oct 14, 10:09 AM ETYesSELL18.1%$0
Oct 14, 10:09 AM ETNoBUY81.5%$2
Oct 14, 10:09 AM ETYesSELL18.5%$0
Oct 14, 05:35 AM ETYesSELL18.5%$0
Oct 13, 10:58 PM ETYesSELL20.0%$0
Oct 13, 10:58 PM ETYesSELL18.5%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Other at 50.0%. Next is Pete Buttigieg at 38.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-of-these-democrats-will-be-the-first-to-announce-a-run-for-president-20260709150125604?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President??

$14.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 markets.

When does Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?, according to Polymarket traders?

Other, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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