As of October 24, 2026, 08:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Pete Hegseth at 43.5% in Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027? — $6.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Pete Hegseth, is priced at 43.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +20.0 pts.
Since October 16, 2026, Pete Hegseth has traded between 14.0% and 43.5%. It opened at 14.0% and last traded at 43.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 25.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 43.5% |
Pete Hegseth is favored at 43.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 44¢ | 43.5% | — | $1.3K | 21.0% |
| Nobody | 28¢ | 28.0% | — | $2.3K | 38.3% |
| Donald Trump | 12¢ | 12.5% | -1.0 pts | $701 | 11.5% |
| Clarence Thomas | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $448 | 7.3% |
| Howard Lutnick | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $356 | 5.8% |
| Todd Blanche | 4¢ | 3.5% | -0.2 pts | $208 | 3.4% |
| Samuel Alito | 3¢ | 3.4% | — | $297 | 4.9% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 3¢ | 3.2% | +2.8 pts | $273 | 4.5% |
| JD Vance | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $198 | 3.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 43¢ / ask 44¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$6.1K has been traded on this event in total, $143 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to which of the listed individuals is the first to be the subject of articles of impeachment passed by the United States House of Representatives between market creation and December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Articles of impeachment passed against any individual not listed in this market will not be considered. In the event that articles of impeachment are passed against multiple listed individuals simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of the listed individual, among those with articles of impeachment passed against them, whose last name is first in alphabetical order. In the event that none of the listed individuals is impeached by the United States House of Representatives by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Nobody". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 414 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mundane-Hood | Yes | 414 | $180 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 400 | $226 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 180 | $102 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 174 | $76 |
| Imaginary-Screenwriting | Yes | 129 | $56 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 80 | $45 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 32 | $18 |
| Crisp-Strobe | Yes | 31 | $13 |
| Golden-Panpipe | No | 26 | $15 |
| Excellent-Drinking | No | 19 | $11 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:16 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 11:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 43.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 11:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 27.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 11:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 43.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 08:01 PM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $17 |
| Oct 22, 08:33 AM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $14 |
| Oct 22, 08:33 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 28.0% | $11 |
| Oct 21, 04:55 AM ET | No | BUY | 57.0% | $11 |
| Oct 21, 01:19 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.0% | $14 |
| Oct 20, 10:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Pete Hegseth at 43.5%. Next is Nobody at 28.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-of-these-people-will-be-impeached-first-by-the-end-of-2027?via=bro
$6.1K in total volume, with $143 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Pete Hegseth, priced at 43.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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