As of October 24, 2026, 08:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Ted Cruz at 50.0% in Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President? — $14.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Ted Cruz, is priced at 50.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +16.0 pts; past month: +42.5 pts.
Since July 21, 2026, Ted Cruz has traded between 7.5% and 51.5%. It opened at 49.0% and last traded at 45.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 12.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 42.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 39.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 45.5% |
Ted Cruz is favored at 50.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Cruz | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $5.8K | 41.3% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| J.D. Vance | 38¢ | 38.0% | +2.5 pts | $4.0K | 28.3% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 33¢ | 33.2% | +4.9 pts | $176 | 1.2% |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 17¢ | 17.0% | -2.3 pts | $217 | 1.5% |
| Ron DeSantis | 13¢ | 13.0% | — | $395 | 2.8% |
| Marco Rubio | 5¢ | 4.8% | — | $441 | 3.1% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $380 | 2.7% |
| Donald Trump | 4¢ | 4.3% | +0.1 pts | $1.2K | 8.6% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 4¢ | 3.6% | +1.9 pts | $207 | 1.5% |
| Rand Paul | 3¢ | 2.9% | — | $1.3K | 8.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 40¢ (bid 30¢ / ask 70¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$14.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 634 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgaron | No | 634 | $317 |
| Adventurous-Safari | Yes | 500 | $250 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 205 | $102 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 190 | $95 |
| Yummy-Winter | No | 100 | $50 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 99 | $50 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | Yes | 80 | $40 |
| Fluffy-Hose | Yes | 62 | $31 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 54 | $27 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | No | 45 | $22 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 03:36 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 28.0% | $10 |
| Oct 18, 01:59 AM ET | No | SELL | 21.0% | $8 |
| Oct 18, 01:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $12 |
| Oct 16, 03:43 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $5 |
| Oct 15, 09:58 PM ET | No | SELL | 83.0% | $25 |
| Oct 15, 07:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $2 |
| Oct 15, 03:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 58.0% | $12 |
| Oct 15, 02:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 57.0% | $34 |
| Oct 15, 02:22 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $8 |
| Oct 15, 12:50 PM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $17 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Ted Cruz at 50.0%. Next is Other at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-of-these-republicans-will-be-the-first-to-announce-a-run-for-president-20260721225459357?via=bro
$14.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Ted Cruz, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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