As of October 24, 2026, 08:05 PM ET, Polymarket traders price SPD at 60.8% in Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government? — $30.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, SPD, is priced at 60.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.9 pts; past week: -16.9 pts; past month: -22.9 pts.
Since August 20, 2026, SPD has traded between 50.1% and 96.5%. It opened at 85.0% and last traded at 66.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 73.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 50.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 53.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 68.3% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 66.6% |
SPD is favored at 60.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPD | 61¢ | 60.8% | -5.9 pts | $7.4K | 24.2% |
| Linke | 59¢ | 59.0% | +1.5 pts | $10.3K | 33.7% |
| Grüne | 50¢ | 49.7% | -16.6 pts | $2.8K | 9.3% |
| CDU | 21¢ | 21.0% | +4.0 pts | $5.6K | 18.4% |
| BSW | 16¢ | 16.4% | +12.7 pts | $1.4K | 4.6% |
| FDP | 3¢ | 2.8% | +0.1 pts | $446 | 1.5% |
| AfD | 2¢ | 1.7% | — | $1.4K | 4.7% |
| FW | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $1.1K | 3.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 44¢ (bid 38¢ / ask 83¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$30.6K has been traded on this event in total, $334 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,938 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treasured-Liner-Cheddar | No | 1,938 | $761 |
| General-Councilman | Yes | 1,404 | $853 |
| Loud-Receiver | Yes | 458 | $278 |
| Ordinary-Dress | No | 250 | $98 |
| Finished-Supplement | Yes | 220 | $134 |
| Slim-Divine | Yes | 175 | $106 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 123 | $48 |
| Lopsided-Vendor | Yes | 91 | $55 |
| Profuse-Deep | Yes | 70 | $43 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 67 | $26 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:38 AM ET | No | BUY | 15.1% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 04:37 AM ET | No | SELL | 15.1% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:37 AM ET | No | SELL | 21.7% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 04:37 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $94 |
| Oct 23, 10:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 07:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.9% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 01:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 84.9% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 01:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.7% | $194 |
| Oct 23, 08:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.0% | $287 |
| Oct 23, 08:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 37.3% | $13 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is SPD at 60.8%. Next is Linke at 59.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-next-berlin-state-government?via=bro
$30.6K in total volume, with $334 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
SPD, priced at 60.8% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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