As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Grüne at 97.0% in Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? — $26.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Grüne, is priced at 97.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.9 pts; past week: +1.8 pts; past month: +5.0 pts.
Since August 20, 2026, Grüne has traded between 26.0% and 97.2%. It opened at 34.5% and last traded at 97.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.0% |
Grüne is favored at 97.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grüne | 97¢ | 97.0% | +1.9 pts | $1.6K | 6.3% |
| SPD | 95¢ | 94.6% | -0.1 pts | $6.7K | 25.5% |
| Linke | 56¢ | 55.8% | -1.5 pts | $4.8K | 18.3% |
| CDU | 4¢ | 3.6% | -0.7 pts | $2.4K | 9.0% |
| FW | 2¢ | 2.3% | -1.7 pts | $1.1K | 4.0% |
| BSW | 2¢ | 2.3% | -0.8 pts | $689 | 2.6% |
| FDP | 2¢ | 1.8% | -0.1 pts | $1.8K | 6.8% |
| AfD | 1¢ | 1.1% | -0.8 pts | $7.2K | 27.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$26.2K has been traded on this event in total, $110 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government formed after the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 478 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quick-Witted-Appetiser | Yes | 478 | $464 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 259 | $8 |
| Lonely-Jacket | Yes | 155 | $150 |
| Subtle-Wetsuit | Yes | 150 | $146 |
| Required-Horn | No | 120 | $4 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 103 | $3 |
| Plastic-Duck | No | 100 | $3 |
| Opulent-Turn | No | 99 | $3 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 89 | $86 |
| Known-Use | No | 59 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 04:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 6.7% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 04:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 94.5% | $66 |
| Oct 18, 06:08 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.8% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 10:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.7% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 09:10 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 96.7% | $429 |
| Oct 17, 04:07 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.7% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 10:06 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.7% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 07:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.8% | $20 |
| Oct 17, 04:04 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.3% | $0 |
| Oct 16, 10:04 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.3% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Grüne at 97.0%. Next is SPD at 94.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-next-mecklenburg-vorpommern-state-government?via=bro
$26.2K in total volume, with $110 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Grüne, priced at 97.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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