As of October 24, 2026, 07:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price AfD at 55.0% in Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? — $61.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, AfD, is priced at 55.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.5 pts; past week: +5.5 pts; past month: +16.0 pts.
Since August 20, 2026, AfD has traded between 22.5% and 88.5%. It opened at 51.0% and last traded at 55.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 55.0% |
AfD is favored at 55.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 55¢ | 55.0% | -5.5 pts | $18.2K | 29.9% |
| Grüne | 34¢ | 33.6% | -5.8 pts | $3.8K | 6.3% |
| BSW | 11¢ | 11.5% | -0.1 pts | $5.5K | 9.1% |
| CDU | 10¢ | 9.5% | -0.5 pts | $5.7K | 9.3% |
| SPD | 7¢ | 7.0% | -2.0 pts | $14.3K | 23.4% |
| FDP | 4¢ | 4.5% | -0.2 pts | $2.3K | 3.8% |
| Linke | 3¢ | 3.3% | +0.6 pts | $11.1K | 18.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 20¢ (bid 45¢ / ask 65¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$61.0K has been traded on this event in total, $119 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end September 06, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Sachsen-Anhalt and the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Resolution source: https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,183 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quick-Witted-Appetiser | Yes | 3,183 | $1.8K |
| Square-Crystal | No | 2,857 | $1.3K |
| Surprised-Article | No | 416 | $187 |
| RepublicOfChina | No | 257 | $116 |
| Unwieldy-Maximum-Wallet | Yes | 248 | $136 |
| Elastic-Tanktop | Yes | 227 | $125 |
| Ajar-Backup | No | 224 | $101 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 214 | $118 |
| Muted-Primary | Yes | 200 | $110 |
| Unusual-Snug-Bongo | No | 175 | $79 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:36 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.7% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.3% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 12:32 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 36.8% | $36 |
| Oct 23, 04:34 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.7% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $34 |
| Oct 23, 01:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $114 |
| Oct 23, 09:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 06:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 69.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 06:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 69.0% | $20 |
| Oct 21, 09:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is AfD at 55.0%. Next is Grüne at 33.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-next-sachsen-anhalt-state-government?via=bro
$61.0K in total volume, with $119 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end September 06, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/.
AfD, priced at 55.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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