As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) at 77.2% in Which parties will be in next Swedish Government? — $267.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), is priced at 77.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.9 pts; past month: -9.2 pts.
Since August 19, 2026, Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) has traded between 67.5% and 95.3%. It opened at 87.5% and last traded at 77.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 81.2% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 74.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 76.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 79.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 77.2% |
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) is favored at 77.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) | 77¢ | 77.2% | — | $69.5K | 26.0% |
| Green Party (MP) | 68¢ | 68.0% | +1.0 pts | $29.3K | 11.0% |
| Centre Party (C) | 53¢ | 53.0% | -5.5 pts | $24.1K | 9.0% |
| Left Party (V) | 22¢ | 22.0% | +0.5 pts | $42.8K | 16.0% |
| Moderate Party (M) | 18¢ | 17.5% | — | $25.3K | 9.5% |
| Liberals (L) | 13¢ | 13.0% | — | $22.1K | 8.3% |
| Christian Democrats (KD) | 12¢ | 12.0% | — | $23.0K | 8.6% |
| Sweden Democrats (SD) | 5¢ | 5.3% | -0.1 pts | $28.1K | 10.5% |
| Citizens' Coalition (MED) | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $3.0K | 1.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 77¢ / ask 78¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$267.2K has been traded on this event in total, $1.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,282 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 4,282 | $976 |
| Stylish-Coliseum | Yes | 2,400 | $1.9K |
| Judicious-Computer | Yes | 2,358 | $1.8K |
| Negligible-Bust | No | 1,955 | $446 |
| Musty-Resist | No | 1,701 | $388 |
| Green-Recruit | Yes | 1,178 | $910 |
| Tired-Philosopher | No | 816 | $186 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger | Yes | 744 | $574 |
| Pricey-Indigence-Owner | Yes | 550 | $425 |
| Quick-Witted-Appetiser | Yes | 487 | $376 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:06 PM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 02:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 02:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $98 |
| Oct 24, 02:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 02:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 04:58 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 76.7% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 12:29 PM ET | No | SELL | 31.8% | $64 |
| Oct 23, 12:28 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 76.7% | $355 |
| Oct 23, 09:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $13 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) at 77.2%. Next is Green Party (MP) at 68.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-next-swedish-government?via=bro
$267.2K in total volume, with $1.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), priced at 77.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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