As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price The Democrats at 62.5% in Which parties will be in the next Israeli government? — $84.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, The Democrats, is priced at 62.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +13.0 pts; past week: +3.0 pts; past month: +17.5 pts.
Since September 21, 2026, The Democrats has traded between 12.0% and 67.5%. It opened at 12.0% and last traded at 62.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 54.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 55.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 64.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 62.5% |
The Democrats is favored at 62.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democrats | 62¢ | 62.5% | +13.0 pts | $2.9K | 3.4% |
| Yashar | 57¢ | 57.0% | -9.0 pts | $10.8K | 12.9% |
| Together | 56¢ | 55.5% | -2.5 pts | $1.6K | 1.9% |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 50¢ | 50.0% | -3.0 pts | $1.4K | 1.6% |
| Otzma Yehudit | 34¢ | 33.5% | +1.5 pts | $3.9K | 4.7% |
| Likud | 32¢ | 32.0% | +1.0 pts | $11.1K | 13.2% |
| United Torah Judaism | 31¢ | 31.0% | +3.5 pts | $2.5K | 3.0% |
| Shas | 30¢ | 29.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.8K | 2.2% |
| Ra'am | 29¢ | 29.0% | -1.5 pts | $23.6K | 28.1% |
| Amcha Yisrael | 27¢ | 27.0% | +0.5 pts | $3.0K | 3.6% |
| RZP-Zehut | 26¢ | 25.5% | +3.5 pts | $4.2K | 5.0% |
| New Economic Party / The Reservists | 26¢ | 25.5% | -1.0 pts | $3.7K | 4.4% |
| Joint List | 4¢ | 4.0% | +0.1 pts | $3.8K | 4.5% |
| Blue and White | 2¢ | 2.4% | +0.1 pts | $495 | 0.6% |
| Noam | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $9.3K | 11.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 31¢ (bid 47¢ / ask 78¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$84.0K has been traded on this event in total, $1.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 15 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 07:59 PM ET.
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Resolution source: https://main.knesset.gov.il
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 454 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 454 | $284 |
| Queasy-Cougar | No | 240 | $90 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 168 | $63 |
| Rash-Dozen | No | 160 | $60 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 139 | $87 |
| Far-Flung-Dogsled | Yes | 65 | $41 |
| Required-Horn | No | 56 | $21 |
| Zigzag-Conspirator-Glee | No | 50 | $19 |
| Paltry-Paperwork | Yes | 30 | $19 |
| Awesome-Checkbook-Hose | Yes | 26 | $16 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 10:36 AM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 10:36 AM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 10:36 AM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 10:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $36 |
| Oct 24, 10:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 31.0% | $32 |
| Oct 24, 10:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $41 |
| Oct 24, 10:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 68.1% | $29 |
| Oct 24, 10:04 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 31.6% | $32 |
| Oct 24, 08:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 35.0% | $42 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is The Democrats at 62.5%. Next is Yashar at 57.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-the-next-israeli-government?via=bro
$84.0K in total volume, with $1.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 15 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 07:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://main.knesset.gov.il.
The Democrats, priced at 62.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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