As of October 24, 2026, 08:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price National Party at 49.5% in Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand? — $3.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, National Party, is priced at 49.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -3.5 pts; past month: -4.5 pts.
Since April 29, 2026, National Party has traded between 26.0% and 74.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 49.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 49.5% |
National Party is favored at 49.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Party | 50¢ | 49.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.1K | 36.1% |
| Labour Party | 49¢ | 49.0% | — | $790 | 25.4% |
| New Zealand First Party | 48¢ | 48.0% | -0.5 pts | $361 | 11.6% |
| Green Party | 47¢ | 47.0% | -12.5 pts | $434 | 14.0% |
| ACT New Zealand | 44¢ | 44.5% | -0.5 pts | $61 | 1.9% |
| Te Pāti Māori | 34¢ | 34.5% | +4.5 pts | $344 | 11.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 27¢ (bid 36¢ / ask 63¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 330 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Granular-Epoxy | No | 330 | $166 |
| Basic-Outset | Yes | 226 | $112 |
| Ajar-Safety | Yes | 100 | $50 |
| Accurate-Investigation | No | 50 | $25 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 50 | $25 |
| Plastic-Duck | Yes | 33 | $17 |
| Brave-Cornflakes | Yes | 32 | $16 |
| Oily-Notoriety | Yes | 26 | $13 |
| NickH2695 | No | 25 | $13 |
| Knowledgeable-Duration | Yes | 16 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 04:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 46.0% | $7 |
| Oct 17, 09:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 36.0% | $0 |
| Oct 10, 07:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 46.0% | $23 |
| Oct 07, 07:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 30.0% | $5 |
| Oct 07, 07:58 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 70.0% | $23 |
| Oct 06, 05:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 51.0% | $26 |
| Oct 05, 08:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 62.0% | $6 |
| Oct 05, 03:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 66.0% | $3 |
| Oct 04, 10:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 33.0% | $16 |
| Oct 04, 02:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 57.0% | $28 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is National Party at 49.5%. Next is Labour Party at 49.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-part-of-the-next-government-of-new-zealand?via=bro
$3.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
National Party, priced at 49.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.