Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Democratic Party at 73.5% in Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms? — $10.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $598.
Leading outcome
Democratic Party
74%
A 73.5% price implies roughly a 74-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −2.0 pts7D +7.0 pts30D +1.5 pts
Democratic Party73.5%
Republican Party16.5%
Bid
73¢
Ask
74¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 18, 2026: 37.5% – 75.5% · Opened at 52.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?
Category
Midterms, Politics, democrat, republican, Governor Races, Governor Elections
Scheduled end
November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$10.1K
Volume (24h)
$598
Liquidity
$66.5K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
Democratic Party — 73.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Democratic Party, is priced at 73.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts; past week: +7.0 pts; past month: +1.5 pts.

Since August 18, 2026, Democratic Party has traded between 37.5% and 75.5%. It opened at 52.0% and last traded at 73.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202666.5%
Oct 18, 202666.5%
Oct 19, 202666.5%
Oct 20, 202669.0%
Oct 22, 202673.5%
Oct 23, 202675.5%
Oct 24, 202673.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Democratic Party is favored at 73.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Democratic Party74¢73.5%-2.0 pts$5.0K50.0%
Republican Party16¢16.5%+0.5 pts$3.9K38.3%
Tie9¢9.0%+0.5 pts$1.2K11.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 73¢ / ask 74¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$10.1K has been traded on this event in total, $598 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, that holds the most US governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. If the Republican Party and the Democratic Party hold the same number of governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections, this market will resolve to “Tie”. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 405 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo405$107
Crazy-FishmongerYes250$184
0xa5ef39c3…No220$58
Prickly-EyrieYes184$135
Worthy-TeenYes100$74
Gleaming-HandlebarNo86$23
Mountainous-FelonyYes60$44
Direct-ChainstayNo51$13
Powerless-BijouYes39$29
Infatuated-NunNo39$10

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $68 at 85.0%BUY Yes — $40 at 67.0%BUY No — $35 at 88.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:36 PM ETYesBUY74.0%$2
Oct 24, 04:19 PM ETNoSELL26.0%$2
Oct 24, 02:50 PM ETNoBUY83.0%$33
Oct 24, 02:50 PM ETYesBUY18.0%$11
Oct 24, 01:40 PM ETNoBUY24.0%$7
Oct 24, 11:12 AM ETNoBUY25.0%$5
Oct 24, 09:32 AM ETNoSELL83.0%$17
Oct 24, 09:31 AM ETYesBUY17.0%$3
Oct 24, 08:33 AM ETYesSELL72.0%$6
Oct 24, 08:32 AM ETYesSELL69.0%$8

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Democratic Party at 73.5%. Next is Republican Party at 16.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-hold-more-governorships-after-the-midterms?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms??

$10.1K in total volume, with $598 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?, according to Polymarket traders?

Democratic Party, priced at 73.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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