As of October 24, 2026, 08:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Democratic Party at 85.5% in Which party will win the Wisconsin State Senate in 2026? — $3.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Democratic Party, is priced at 85.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +4.0 pts; past month: +3.0 pts.
Since September 10, 2026, Democratic Party has traded between 54.0% and 89.0%. It opened at 82.5% and last traded at 85.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 85.5% |
Democratic Party is favored at 85.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 86¢ | 85.5% | +1.0 pts | $2.0K | 51.4% |
| Party A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Republican Party | 13¢ | 13.0% | -1.0 pts | $1.9K | 48.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 84¢ / ask 87¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the Wisconsin State Senate in the 2026 Wisconsin midterm election. A party wins control of the Wisconsin Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no President of the State Senate is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 361 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 361 | $52 |
| Measly-Gelatin | Yes | 304 | $260 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 144 | $21 |
| Bumpy-Conscience | Yes | 129 | $110 |
| Winged-Holder | Yes | 97 | $83 |
| Gifted-Rancher | Yes | 20 | $17 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 17 | $2 |
| Stale-Cashew | No | 15 | $2 |
| Required-Tactics | No | 6 | $1 |
| Plastic-Duck | Yes | 5 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 11:22 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 79.0% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 02:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 16.5% | $3 |
| Oct 13, 02:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 17.0% | $3 |
| Oct 13, 02:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.0% | $16 |
| Oct 13, 02:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 79.0% | $32 |
| Oct 13, 02:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.0% | $32 |
| Oct 13, 02:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.0% | $17 |
| Oct 13, 12:22 PM ET | No | SELL | 20.0% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 08:05 AM ET | No | SELL | 20.0% | $0 |
| Oct 12, 09:28 PM ET | No | SELL | 20.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Democratic Party at 85.5%. Next is Party A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-wisconsin-state-senate-in-2026?via=bro
$3.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Democratic Party, priced at 85.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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