As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Democrats at 74.0% in Which party will win white women in the midterms? — $42.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Democrats, is priced at 74.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.5 pts; past week: -0.5 pts; past month: +3.0 pts.
Since September 03, 2026, Democrats has traded between 46.5% and 83.5%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 74.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 74.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 74.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 74.0% |
Democrats is favored at 74.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 74¢ | 74.0% | +4.5 pts | $15.9K | 37.3% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Republicans | 24¢ | 24.0% | -6.0 pts | $26.6K | 62.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 73¢ / ask 75¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$42.5K has been traded on this event in total, $3.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 06, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of white women in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,736 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,736 | $711 |
| Liquid-Argument | Yes | 1,450 | $1.1K |
| Measly-Gelatin | Yes | 405 | $300 |
| Rusty-Wit | Yes | 323 | $239 |
| Dead-Examiner | Yes | 130 | $96 |
| Forthright-Forager | Yes | 104 | $77 |
| CompulsiveGambler | Yes | 103 | $77 |
| Terrible-Sunglasses | Yes | 100 | $74 |
| Enraged-Lunch | Yes | 80 | $59 |
| Active-Table | Yes | 76 | $56 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:22 PM ET | No | SELL | 74.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 06:19 PM ET | No | SELL | 75.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 04:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 74.7% | $71 |
| Oct 24, 02:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.4% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 02:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 02:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 17.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 02:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 02:08 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 72.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Democrats at 74.0%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-white-women-in-the-midterms?via=bro
$42.5K in total volume, with $3.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 06, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
Democrats, priced at 74.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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