As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Democratic at 65.5% in Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? — $2.51M traded so far.
The leading outcome, Democratic, is priced at 65.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +2.0 pts; past month: -1.0 pts.
Since July 18, 2025, Democratic has traded between 52.5% and 66.5%. It opened at 54.5% and last traded at 65.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 65.5% |
Democratic is favored at 65.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 66¢ | 65.5% | — | $1.26M | 50.2% |
| Republican | 34¢ | 34.5% | — | $1.25M | 49.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 65¢ / ask 66¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.51M has been traded on this event in total, $113 of it in the last 24 hours, across 15 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 07, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 121,246 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 121,246 | $41.8K |
| Warm-Legislation | Yes | 74,883 | $49.0K |
| Tinted-Consciousness | No | 74,833 | $25.8K |
| Insecure-Draft-Airspace | Yes | 36,876 | $24.2K |
| Tinted-Rostrum-Region | Yes | 36,173 | $23.7K |
| 0xa0f21e6d… | No | 24,550 | $8.5K |
| Clear-Screenwriting | No | 21,000 | $7.2K |
| Monopoly_Money | No | 20,100 | $6.9K |
| Impartial-Shot | Yes | 19,222 | $12.6K |
| Scratchy-Speed | Yes | 18,891 | $12.4K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:08 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 34.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 35.0% | $331 |
| Oct 24, 09:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 03:59 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 34.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:59 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 10:35 AM ET | No | SELL | 34.0% | $20 |
| Oct 23, 10:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 64.0% | $38 |
| Oct 23, 09:33 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 08:47 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 34.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Democratic at 65.5%. Next is Republican at 34.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election?via=bro
$2.51M in total volume, with $113 traded in the last 24 hours across 15 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 07, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
Democratic, priced at 65.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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