As of October 24, 2026, 06:37 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Iowa at 21.0% in Which Senate races will be within 1%? — $27.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Iowa, is priced at 21.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +0.5 pts; past month: +4.0 pts.
Since August 21, 2026, Iowa has traded between 9.5% and 38.5%. It opened at 26.5% and last traded at 21.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 21.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 21.0% |
Iowa is favored at 21.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 21¢ | 21.0% | +0.5 pts | $886 | 3.3% |
| Montana | 21¢ | 20.9% | +7.4 pts | $703 | 2.6% |
| Kansas | 20¢ | 20.5% | — | $2.2K | 8.1% |
| Michigan | 19¢ | 18.9% | -1.1 pts | $2.8K | 10.2% |
| Nebraska | 18¢ | 17.5% | — | $1.3K | 4.8% |
| Texas | 17¢ | 17.0% | +1.0 pts | $2.2K | 8.0% |
| Alaska | 17¢ | 17.0% | — | $3.3K | 12.1% |
| Ohio (Special) | 17¢ | 16.6% | +5.0 pts | $2.0K | 7.3% |
| Maine | 16¢ | 16.5% | — | $3.6K | 13.2% |
| Minnesota | 8¢ | 8.3% | +3.2 pts | $1.3K | 4.7% |
| Florida (Special) | 8¢ | 8.2% | +0.2 pts | $218 | 0.8% |
| South Carolina | 8¢ | 8.0% | -1.0 pts | $738 | 2.7% |
| New Hampshire | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $720 | 2.7% |
| Mississippi | 6¢ | 6.0% | -1.3 pts | $749 | 2.8% |
| Georgia | 6¢ | 5.8% | -0.2 pts | $1.3K | 4.6% |
| North Carolina | 4¢ | 3.8% | +0.1 pts | $689 | 2.5% |
| Virginia | 4¢ | 3.7% | — | $1.1K | 4.1% |
| Colorado | 3¢ | 3.2% | — | $985 | 3.6% |
| New Mexico | 3¢ | 2.5% | — | $504 | 1.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 19¢ / ask 23¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$27.1K has been traded on this event in total, $521 of it in the last 24 hours, across 19 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 154 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crazy-Fishmonger | No | 154 | $122 |
| Powerless-Bijou | Yes | 131 | $28 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 114 | $24 |
| 0x546029093abad5c5615f72c903908baccfc8c7b5 | No | 97 | $76 |
| Known-Use | No | 10 | $8 |
| Hoarse-Lining-Prize | Yes | 9 | $2 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 5 | $1 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | Yes | 2 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:10 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.5% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 07:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.8% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 07:33 AM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 07:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 82.5% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 04:39 AM ET | No | SELL | 77.6% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 01:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 82.6% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 01:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 80.4% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 01:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 79.5% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 01:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 80.3% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 01:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 80.3% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Iowa at 21.0%. Next is Montana at 20.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-senate-races-will-be-within-1?via=bro
$27.1K in total volume, with $521 traded in the last 24 hours across 19 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Iowa, priced at 21.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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