As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price DeepSeek at 31.5% in Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? — $159.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, DeepSeek, is priced at 31.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -10.0 pts; past week: +15.0 pts; past month: +1.0 pts.
Since July 13, 2026, DeepSeek has traded between 15.5% and 55.5%. It opened at 40.5% and last traded at 40.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 26.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 40.5% |
DeepSeek is favored at 31.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek | 32¢ | 31.5% | -10.0 pts | $43.2K | 27.1% |
| Moonshot AI | 16¢ | 16.5% | — | $20.2K | 12.6% |
| Xiaomi | 10¢ | 10.5% | -1.5 pts | $47.0K | 29.5% |
| ByteDance | 10¢ | 9.5% | -0.5 pts | $49.0K | 30.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 31¢ / ask 32¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$159.4K has been traded on this event in total, $2.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,227 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reckless-Estrogen-Competence | Yes | 2,227 | $702 |
| Charming-Grape | No | 906 | $621 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | No | 836 | $573 |
| Unwritten-Hybridization | Yes | 823 | $259 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 600 | $411 |
| Natural-Vacation | No | 500 | $342 |
| 0x14a1783e… | No | 275 | $189 |
| Known-Use | No | 258 | $177 |
| Unsightly-Young | Yes | 175 | $55 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 127 | $87 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 07:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $136 |
| Oct 24, 07:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $70 |
| Oct 24, 07:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $63 |
| Oct 24, 05:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:22 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 02:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 66.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 34.0% | $41 |
| Oct 24, 02:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $14 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is DeepSeek at 31.5%. Next is Moonshot AI at 16.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-added-to-chinese-military-companies-list-by-june-30-2027-20260706225129414?via=bro
$159.4K in total volume, with $2.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/.
DeepSeek, priced at 31.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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