As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price John Brennan at 21.0% in Who will be arrested before 2027? — $526.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, John Brennan, is priced at 21.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -3.0 pts; past month: +0.5 pts.
Since April 30, 2026, John Brennan has traded between 17.0% and 72.0%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 21.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 24.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 21.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 22.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 21.0% |
John Brennan is favored at 21.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brennan | 21¢ | 21.0% | -0.5 pts | $34.4K | 6.5% |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 16¢ | 16.5% | +0.5 pts | $4.3K | 0.8% |
| Lee Jun-seok | 16¢ | 15.8% | +3.5 pts | $1.3K | 0.2% |
| Tom Homan | 13¢ | 13.3% | +6.6 pts | $49.8K | 9.5% |
| Anthony Fauci | 7¢ | 6.8% | +0.2 pts | $199.3K | 37.9% |
| James Clapper | 6¢ | 6.0% | +0.5 pts | $9.7K | 1.8% |
| Susan Rice | 6¢ | 6.0% | — | $2.3K | 0.4% |
| Pam Bondi | 6¢ | 5.7% | -0.1 pts | $3.6K | 0.7% |
| Brandon Johnson | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $3.8K | 0.7% |
| Candace Owens | 5¢ | 5.1% | -0.9 pts | $342 | 0.1% |
| Lisa Cook | 5¢ | 5.0% | +1.1 pts | $4.5K | 0.8% |
| Letitia James | 4¢ | 4.3% | -0.2 pts | $6.7K | 1.3% |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 4¢ | 4.1% | — | $31.6K | 6.0% |
| Adam Schiff | 3¢ | 3.4% | +0.2 pts | $18.9K | 3.6% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 3¢ | 2.9% | +0.4 pts | $4.7K | 0.9% |
| James Comey | 3¢ | 2.8% | -1.2 pts | $21.5K | 4.1% |
| Gavin Newsom | 3¢ | 2.8% | -0.1 pts | $42.8K | 8.1% |
| Kash Patel | 2¢ | 2.4% | — | $727 | 0.1% |
| Loretta Lynch | 2¢ | 2.4% | +0.1 pts | $4.8K | 0.9% |
| Barack Obama | 2¢ | 1.9% | — | $30.9K | 5.9% |
| Bill Clinton | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $4.4K | 0.8% |
| Hillary Clinton | 2¢ | 1.7% | — | $36.6K | 6.9% |
| John Kerry | 1¢ | 1.4% | — | $523 | 0.1% |
| Joe Biden | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $9.1K | 1.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 22¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$526.5K has been traded on this event in total, $1.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 24 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,120 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smoggy-Antique | Yes | 3,120 | $655 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 1,934 | $406 |
| Downright-Website | No | 1,774 | $1.4K |
| Weird-Freedom | No | 1,300 | $1.0K |
| Cultivated-Diesel | Yes | 1,224 | $257 |
| 0x91c363ac… | No | 1,162 | $918 |
| Prickly-Signup | No | 938 | $741 |
| Ample-Instance | No | 805 | $636 |
| Wasteful-Sensor | Yes | 729 | $153 |
| Wilted-Burden-Survivor | No | 714 | $564 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:59 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.3% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.3% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 07:59 AM ET | No | BUY | 84.3% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 07:59 AM ET | No | BUY | 83.4% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 07:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 84.3% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 07:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 83.4% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 07:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.8% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 06:11 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.5% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:11 AM ET | No | SELL | 87.6% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 04:43 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.7% | $24 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is John Brennan at 21.0%. Next is Mahmoud Khalil at 16.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027?via=bro
$526.5K in total volume, with $1.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 24 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
John Brennan, priced at 21.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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