Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Who will be arrested before 2027?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price John Brennan at 21.0% in Who will be arrested before 2027? — $526.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.7K.
Leading outcome
John Brennan
21%
A 21.0% price implies roughly a 21-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D −3.0 pts30D +0.5 pts
John Brennan21.0%
Mahmoud Khalil16.5%
Bid
20¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since April 30, 2026: 17.0% – 72.0% · Opened at 49.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Who will be arrested before 2027?
Category
James Comey, Trump, Politics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$526.5K
Volume (24h)
$1.7K
Liquidity
$575.0K
Markets
24
Leading outcome
John Brennan — 21.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, John Brennan, is priced at 21.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -3.0 pts; past month: +0.5 pts.

Since April 30, 2026, John Brennan has traded between 17.0% and 72.0%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 21.0%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202624.0%
Oct 18, 202620.0%
Oct 19, 202621.0%
Oct 20, 202621.5%
Oct 22, 202622.0%
Oct 23, 202621.5%
Oct 24, 202621.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

John Brennan is favored at 21.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
John Brennan21¢21.0%-0.5 pts$34.4K6.5%
Mahmoud Khalil16¢16.5%+0.5 pts$4.3K0.8%
Lee Jun-seok16¢15.8%+3.5 pts$1.3K0.2%
Tom Homan13¢13.3%+6.6 pts$49.8K9.5%
Anthony Fauci7¢6.8%+0.2 pts$199.3K37.9%
James Clapper6¢6.0%+0.5 pts$9.7K1.8%
Susan Rice6¢6.0%—$2.3K0.4%
Pam Bondi6¢5.7%-0.1 pts$3.6K0.7%
Brandon Johnson6¢5.5%—$3.8K0.7%
Candace Owens5¢5.1%-0.9 pts$3420.1%
Lisa Cook5¢5.0%+1.1 pts$4.5K0.8%
Letitia James4¢4.3%-0.2 pts$6.7K1.3%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero4¢4.1%—$31.6K6.0%
Adam Schiff3¢3.4%+0.2 pts$18.9K3.6%
Benjamin Netanyahu3¢2.9%+0.4 pts$4.7K0.9%
James Comey3¢2.8%-1.2 pts$21.5K4.1%
Gavin Newsom3¢2.8%-0.1 pts$42.8K8.1%
Kash Patel2¢2.4%—$7270.1%
Loretta Lynch2¢2.4%+0.1 pts$4.8K0.9%
Barack Obama2¢1.9%—$30.9K5.9%
Bill Clinton2¢1.8%—$4.4K0.8%
Hillary Clinton2¢1.7%—$36.6K6.9%
John Kerry1¢1.4%—$5230.1%
Joe Biden1¢0.9%—$9.1K1.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 22¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$526.5K has been traded on this event in total, $1.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 24 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,120 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Smoggy-AntiqueYes3,120$655
Awesome-AvailabilityYes1,934$406
Downright-WebsiteNo1,774$1.4K
Weird-FreedomNo1,300$1.0K
Cultivated-DieselYes1,224$257
0x91c363ac…No1,162$918
Prickly-SignupNo938$741
Ample-InstanceNo805$636
Wasteful-SensorYes729$153
Wilted-Burden-SurvivorNo714$564

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.9K at 92.5%BUY No — $1.1K at 93.1%SELL No — $959 at 92.7%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:59 PM ETYesSELL12.3%$1
Oct 24, 11:46 AM ETNoBUY88.3%$19
Oct 24, 07:59 AM ETNoBUY84.3%$17
Oct 24, 07:59 AM ETNoBUY83.4%$17
Oct 24, 07:58 AM ETNoBUY84.3%$17
Oct 24, 07:58 AM ETNoBUY83.4%$17
Oct 24, 07:53 AM ETNoBUY85.8%$21
Oct 24, 06:11 AM ETNoSELL86.5%$3
Oct 24, 06:11 AM ETNoSELL87.6%$12
Oct 24, 04:43 AM ETNoBUY88.7%$24

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Who will be arrested before 2027??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is John Brennan at 21.0%. Next is Mahmoud Khalil at 16.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Who will be arrested before 2027??

$526.5K in total volume, with $1.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 24 markets.

When does Who will be arrested before 2027? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Who will be arrested before 2027?, according to Polymarket traders?

John Brennan, priced at 21.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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