As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price CATL at 19.5% in Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? — $613.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, CATL, is priced at 19.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -6.0 pts; past month: -15.0 pts.
Since July 13, 2026, CATL has traded between 10.5% and 57.0%. It opened at 43.0% and last traded at 19.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 21.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 26.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 26.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 26.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 19.5% |
CATL is favored at 19.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CATL | 20¢ | 19.5% | — | $125.3K | 20.4% |
| Hesai | 17¢ | 17.0% | — | $15.2K | 2.5% |
| Unitree | 17¢ | 17.0% | — | $20.3K | 3.3% |
| CXMT | 16¢ | 16.5% | +0.5 pts | $73.5K | 12.0% |
| BYD | 16¢ | 15.5% | +2.5 pts | $98.4K | 16.0% |
| Baidu | 15¢ | 15.0% | — | $99.0K | 16.1% |
| Alibaba | 14¢ | 13.5% | -0.5 pts | $62.9K | 10.2% |
| Tencent | 14¢ | 13.5% | — | $47.4K | 7.7% |
| YMTC | 12¢ | 12.5% | — | $38.7K | 6.3% |
| DJI | 10¢ | 10.5% | — | $32.8K | 5.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 19¢ / ask 20¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$613.4K has been traded on this event in total, $189 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,244 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unlined-Pole | No | 1,244 | $1.0K |
| Reckless-Estrogen-Competence | No | 1,206 | $971 |
| Charming-Grape | Yes | 1,105 | $216 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 917 | $179 |
| Lively-Attraction | No | 697 | $561 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 448 | $87 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 265 | $52 |
| Probable-Site | Yes | 181 | $35 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 174 | $34 |
| Evil-Row | No | 82 | $66 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 03:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 83.0% | $50 |
| Oct 22, 11:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $53 |
| Oct 22, 07:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 07:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 84.4% | $42 |
| Oct 22, 12:53 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 12:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 11:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $32 |
| Oct 21, 11:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 75.6% | $911 |
| Oct 21, 11:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 11:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.6% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is CATL at 19.5%. Next is Hesai at 17.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-removed-from-chinese-military-companies-list-by-june-30-2027-20260706223230550?via=bro
$613.4K in total volume, with $189 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/.
CATL, priced at 19.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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