As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Other at 50.0% in Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet? — $138.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Other, is priced at 50.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.0 pts; past week: +0.0 pts; past month: +0.0 pts.
Other is favored at 50.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| John Healey | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $25.0K | 18.1% |
| Bridget Phillipson | 6¢ | 6.1% | -10.7 pts | $4.4K | 3.2% |
| Miatta Fahnbulleh | 5¢ | 5.2% | -1.1 pts | $6.1K | 4.4% |
| Yvette Cooper | 5¢ | 5.0% | -0.3 pts | $3.8K | 2.8% |
| Alex Norris | 5¢ | 5.0% | -0.9 pts | $2.2K | 1.6% |
| Heidi Alexander | 5¢ | 5.0% | — | $3.0K | 2.1% |
| Alan Campbell | 5¢ | 4.7% | -9.4 pts | $4.1K | 2.9% |
| Angela Smith | 5¢ | 4.6% | +0.2 pts | $2.1K | 1.5% |
| Lucy Powell | 5¢ | 4.5% | +0.1 pts | $7.0K | 5.0% |
| Jonathan Reynolds | 4¢ | 4.2% | — | $3.8K | 2.8% |
| Stephen Kinnock | 4¢ | 4.2% | — | $5.0K | 3.6% |
| Chris Bryant | 4¢ | 4.2% | +1.6 pts | $14.2K | 10.3% |
| Angela Rayner | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $789 | 0.6% |
| Douglas Alexander | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $2.9K | 2.1% |
| Lisa Nandy | 4¢ | 3.9% | — | $2.3K | 1.7% |
| Wes Streeting | 4¢ | 3.5% | — | $3.0K | 2.2% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 3¢ | 3.4% | +0.7 pts | $24.2K | 17.5% |
| Louise Haigh | 3¢ | 3.2% | — | $1.1K | 0.8% |
| Angela Eagle | 3¢ | 3.0% | — | $5.5K | 4.0% |
| Ed Miliband | 3¢ | 2.8% | -0.5 pts | $2.0K | 1.4% |
| Pat McFadden | 2¢ | 2.4% | -0.9 pts | $12.5K | 9.0% |
| Anneliese Midgley | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $3.1K | 2.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 100¢ (bid 0¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$138.2K has been traded on this event in total, $50 of it in the last 24 hours, across 23 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,036 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 3,036 | $1.5K |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 2,496 | $1.2K |
| Known-Use | Yes | 280 | $140 |
| Giant-Otter-Recruit | Yes | 60 | $30 |
| Motionless-Stalk | Yes | 40 | $20 |
| Blind-Leaf | Yes | 39 | $20 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 37 | $19 |
| Scared-Fencing | Yes | 20 | $10 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 15 | $7 |
| Prestigious-Zephyr-Jail | Yes | 13 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.5% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 08:24 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 07:43 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.8% | $3 |
| Oct 17, 06:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $4 |
| Oct 17, 06:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $1.0K |
| Oct 12, 09:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.0% | $5 |
| Oct 11, 11:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.8% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 08:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
| Oct 11, 08:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.5% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 08:53 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.8% | $14 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Other at 50.0%. Next is John Healey at 7.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-first-to-leave-the-burnham-cabinet-20260803162204?via=bro
$138.2K in total volume, with $50 traded in the last 24 hours across 23 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Other, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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