As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price None before 2027 at 37.5% in Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet? — $137.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, None before 2027, is priced at 37.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: -3.2 pts; past month: -20.8 pts.
Since May 22, 2026, None before 2027 has traded between 2.5% and 64.8%. It opened at 24.0% and last traded at 37.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 38.8% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 40.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 37.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 38.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 38.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 37.7% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 37.5% |
None before 2027 is favored at 37.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None before 2027 | 38¢ | 37.5% | -0.1 pts | $72.1K | 52.3% |
| Susie Wiles | 24¢ | 24.4% | -2.5 pts | $15.8K | 11.5% |
| Pete Hegseth | 9¢ | 8.9% | -1.2 pts | $5.4K | 3.9% |
| Chris Wright | 7¢ | 6.9% | +6.2 pts | $1.2K | 0.9% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 6¢ | 5.5% | -0.1 pts | $24.2K | 17.6% |
| Marco Rubio | 4¢ | 4.3% | +3.7 pts | $881 | 0.6% |
| Russell T. Vought | 4¢ | 4.1% | -0.1 pts | $832 | 0.6% |
| Brooke Rollins | 3¢ | 2.8% | -2.1 pts | $1.1K | 0.8% |
| Howard Lutnick | 3¢ | 2.8% | +2.1 pts | $1.3K | 0.9% |
| Mike Waltz | 3¢ | 2.8% | -3.8 pts | $1.5K | 1.1% |
| John Ratcliffe | 3¢ | 2.6% | +0.1 pts | $908 | 0.7% |
| Lee Zeldin | 2¢ | 1.7% | +0.1 pts | $1.5K | 1.1% |
| Scott Turner | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $662 | 0.5% |
| Doug Burgum | 2¢ | 1.6% | +0.1 pts | $1.2K | 0.9% |
| J.D. Vance | 1¢ | 1.2% | +0.1 pts | $836 | 0.6% |
| Kelly Loeffler | 1¢ | 0.9% | +0.1 pts | $1.1K | 0.8% |
| Sean Duffy | 1¢ | 0.9% | +0.1 pts | $1.0K | 0.8% |
| Linda McMahon | 1¢ | 0.8% | +0.1 pts | $1.3K | 0.9% |
| Scott Bessent | 1¢ | 0.8% | +0.1 pts | $3.2K | 2.3% |
| Jamieson Greer | 1¢ | 0.7% | +0.1 pts | $793 | 0.6% |
| Doug Collins | 1¢ | 0.5% | +0.1 pts | $961 | 0.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 37¢ / ask 38¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$137.9K has been traded on this event in total, $1.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 29 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,235 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unfit-Hardboard | Yes | 5,235 | $2.0K |
| Functional-Heartthrob | No | 4,984 | $3.1K |
| Cheery-Science | No | 1,765 | $1.1K |
| siick | Yes | 1,722 | $646 |
| Plastic-Larder | Yes | 1,487 | $558 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 960 | $600 |
| Immaterial-Stalk | No | 900 | $562 |
| Wan-Withdrawal | No | 785 | $491 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 639 | $240 |
| jaja5050 | No | 494 | $308 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:07 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 24.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 09:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 62.0% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 09:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 08:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 37.9% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 08:32 AM ET | No | SELL | 62.1% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 08:32 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 37.1% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 62.9% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 08:07 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.8% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 07:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.6% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 07:23 AM ET | No | SELL | 74.3% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is None before 2027 at 37.5%. Next is Susie Wiles at 24.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-474?via=bro
$137.9K in total volume, with $1.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 29 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
None before 2027, priced at 37.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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