As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Joshua Van at 97.7% in Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026? — $1.20M traded so far.
The leading outcome, Joshua Van, is priced at 97.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.8 pts; past week: +6.2 pts; past month: +3.1 pts.
Since January 02, 2026, Joshua Van has traded between 16.5% and 97.7%. It opened at 37.5% and last traded at 97.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.7% |
Joshua Van is favored at 97.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 98¢ | 97.7% | +1.8 pts | $17.4K | 1.4% |
| Manel Kape | 1¢ | 1.3% | +0.1 pts | $8.5K | 0.7% |
| Brandon Royval | 0¢ | 0.2% | +0.1 pts | $2.0K | 0.2% |
| Alexandre Pantoja | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $13.9K | 1.2% |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.9K | 0.2% |
| Brandon Moreno | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.0K | 0.2% |
| Amir Albazi | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $790.2K | 65.6% |
| Asu Almabayev | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $59.2K | 4.9% |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.5K | 0.1% |
| Tim Elliott | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $306.2K | 25.4% |
| Steve Erceg | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.8K | 0.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.20M has been traded on this event in total, $861 of it in the last 24 hours, across 19 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/athletes
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,259 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 3,259 | $75 |
| Ultimate-Hotdog | Yes | 1,150 | $1.1K |
| Wretched-Postage | Yes | 865 | $845 |
| Virtual-Politics | Yes | 739 | $722 |
| Thirsty-Breakpoint | Yes | 542 | $529 |
| Glossy-Cashier | No | 320 | $7 |
| Infinite-Prelude | Yes | 300 | $293 |
| Faint-Pork | Yes | 227 | $222 |
| 0xc58ad474… | Yes | 217 | $212 |
| Forsaken-Conifer | Yes | 182 | $178 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 12:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 05, 02:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.1% | $0 |
| Sep 28, 11:16 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.9% | $1 |
| Sep 28, 11:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.1% | $0 |
| Sep 22, 07:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.1% | $0 |
| Sep 16, 06:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $10 |
| Sep 16, 06:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $3 |
| Sep 16, 02:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Sep 16, 02:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Sep 16, 01:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $30 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Joshua Van at 97.7%. Next is Manel Kape at 1.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-ufc-flyweight-champion-at-the-end-of-2026?via=bro
$1.20M in total volume, with $861 traded in the last 24 hours across 19 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ufc.com/athletes.
Joshua Van, priced at 97.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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