As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Carlos Ulberg at 94.0% in Who will be UFC Light Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026? — $1.01M traded so far.
The leading outcome, Carlos Ulberg, is priced at 94.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.5 pts; past month: +5.0 pts.
Since January 04, 2026, Carlos Ulberg has traded between 12.0% and 94.5%. It opened at 46.0% and last traded at 94.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.0% |
Carlos Ulberg is favored at 94.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 94¢ | 94.0% | — | $11.6K | 1.1% |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 4¢ | 4.0% | +0.7 pts | $36.9K | 3.6% |
| Alex Pereira | 2¢ | 1.6% | -0.2 pts | $18.1K | 1.8% |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $264.8K | 26.2% |
| Jamahal Hill | 1¢ | 0.8% | -0.1 pts | $60.3K | 6.0% |
| Jiří Procházka | 1¢ | 0.8% | +0.1 pts | $426.5K | 42.1% |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 1¢ | 0.6% | +0.1 pts | $144.3K | 14.3% |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0¢ | 0.5% | +0.4 pts | $1.4K | 0.1% |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $36.7K | 3.6% |
| Nikita Krylov | 0¢ | 0.5% | +0.1 pts | $849 | 0.1% |
| Dominick Reyes | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $8.3K | 0.8% |
| Azamat Murzakanov | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.1K | 0.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 93¢ / ask 95¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.01M has been traded on this event in total, $149 of it in the last 24 hours, across 19 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Light Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/athletes
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,830 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,830 | $110 |
| Wasteful-Beneficiary | Yes | 1,400 | $1.3K |
| Poor-Footage | No | 1,261 | $76 |
| Crooked-Building | Yes | 605 | $568 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Period | Yes | 300 | $282 |
| Messy-String | Yes | 220 | $207 |
| Faint-Pork | Yes | 167 | $157 |
| Loathsome-Ox | Yes | 161 | $151 |
| Fearful-Brook | Yes | 155 | $146 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 144 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 08:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.5% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 08:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.3% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 08:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.6% | $5 |
| Oct 16, 03:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.5% | $0 |
| Oct 06, 02:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $0 |
| Oct 05, 01:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Sep 19, 01:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $1 |
| Sep 14, 11:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.2% | $1 |
| Sep 14, 11:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.3% | $1 |
| Sep 14, 11:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.3% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Carlos Ulberg at 94.0%. Next is Magomed Ankalaev at 4.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-ufc-light-heavyweight-champion-at-the-end-of-2026?via=bro
$1.01M in total volume, with $149 traded in the last 24 hours across 19 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ufc.com/athletes.
Carlos Ulberg, priced at 94.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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