As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Justin Gaethje at 89.0% in Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026? — $763.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Justin Gaethje, is priced at 89.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts; past week: +1.9 pts; past month: -1.8 pts.
Since January 04, 2026, Justin Gaethje has traded between 4.1% and 94.7%. It opened at 15.5% and last traded at 89.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 87.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 87.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 87.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 86.9% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 89.0% |
Justin Gaethje is favored at 89.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 89¢ | 89.0% | -3.0 pts | $58.0K | 7.6% |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 9¢ | 8.6% | +1.5 pts | $48.0K | 6.3% |
| Ilia Topuria | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $25.2K | 3.3% |
| Max Holloway | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $20.8K | 2.7% |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $532.1K | 69.7% |
| Charles Oliveira | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $11.8K | 1.6% |
| Dan Hooker | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.2K | 0.3% |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.0K | 0.3% |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $54.2K | 7.1% |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.1K | 0.3% |
| Renato Moicano | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.4K | 0.3% |
| Mauricio Ruffy | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $4.8K | 0.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 87¢ / ask 91¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$763.8K has been traded on this event in total, $2.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 19 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/athletes
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 10,272 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 10,272 | $1.1K |
| Flashy-Label | Yes | 6,555 | $5.8K |
| Ancient-Interviewer-Prison | Yes | 1,963 | $1.7K |
| Bold-Health | No | 1,618 | $177 |
| Rotten-Watch-Short | Yes | 1,214 | $1.1K |
| Crazy-Fishmonger | No | 1,193 | $131 |
| Loathsome-Ox | Yes | 1,106 | $985 |
| Amazing-Eye | Yes | 1,064 | $948 |
| Watchful-Rations | No | 1,001 | $110 |
| Faint-Pork | Yes | 837 | $745 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 89.1% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 05:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 89.1% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 05:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 89.1% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 05:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 89.1% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 05:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 89.1% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 05:49 PM ET | No | BUY | 10.7% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 05:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 10.6% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 10.3% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 03:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 10.1% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:23 PM ET | No | BUY | 9.4% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Justin Gaethje at 89.0%. Next is Arman Tsarukyan at 8.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-ufc-lightweight-champion-at-the-end-of-2026?via=bro
$763.8K in total volume, with $2.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 19 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ufc.com/athletes.
Justin Gaethje, priced at 89.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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