As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Islam Makhachev at 96.2% in Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026? — $667.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Islam Makhachev, is priced at 96.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.8 pts; past week: +3.5 pts; past month: +5.2 pts.
Since January 04, 2026, Islam Makhachev has traded between 50.5% and 96.2%. It opened at 60.0% and last traded at 96.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 92.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 92.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.2% |
Islam Makhachev is favored at 96.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 96¢ | 96.2% | +0.8 pts | $34.5K | 5.2% |
| Carlos Prates | 2¢ | 1.7% | -2.0 pts | $12.5K | 1.9% |
| Michael Morales | 0¢ | 0.4% | +0.3 pts | $10.4K | 1.6% |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.2K | 0.3% |
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $203.4K | 30.5% |
| Ian Machado Garry | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $9.2K | 1.4% |
| Belal Muhammad | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.8K | 0.3% |
| Sean Brady | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.1K | 0.3% |
| Kamaru Usman | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $367.2K | 55.0% |
| Leon Edwards | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.7K | 0.3% |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $21.8K | 3.3% |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.0K | 0.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 95¢ / ask 97¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$667.8K has been traded on this event in total, $3.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 19 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/athletes
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,154 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 6,154 | $231 |
| Flashy-Label | Yes | 2,500 | $2.4K |
| Crooked-Building | Yes | 1,508 | $1.5K |
| Shabby-Cheque | No | 1,508 | $57 |
| Virtual-Politics | Yes | 1,249 | $1.2K |
| Bold-Health | No | 1,233 | $46 |
| Scented-Hygienic | Yes | 741 | $713 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Period | Yes | 693 | $667 |
| Definite-Irony-Ladle | No | 550 | $21 |
| Fluid-Typeface-Toad | No | 461 | $17 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 5.6% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 4.7% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 94.7% | $42 |
| Oct 24, 03:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 93.6% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 03:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 92.6% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 03:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 95.2% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 03:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.5% | $107 |
| Oct 24, 03:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 95.4% | $286 |
| Oct 24, 03:36 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 88.8% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 03:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 93.7% | $37 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Islam Makhachev at 96.2%. Next is Carlos Prates at 1.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-ufc-welterweight-champion-at-the-end-of-2026?via=bro
$667.8K in total volume, with $3.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 19 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ufc.com/athletes.
Islam Makhachev, priced at 96.2% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.