Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Who will die in Avengers: Doomsday?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Loki at 79.5% in Who will die in Avengers: Doomsday? — $39.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $183.
Leading outcome
Loki
80%
A 79.5% price implies roughly a 80-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −2.0 pts30D +1.0 pts
Loki79.5%
Thor69.5%
Bid
79¢
Ask
80¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since July 02, 2026: 36.0% – 87.0% · Opened at 49.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Who will die in Avengers: Doomsday?
Category
Movies, Culture
Scheduled end
January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$39.5K
Volume (24h)
$183
Liquidity
$5.3K
Markets
9
Leading outcome
Loki — 79.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Loki, is priced at 79.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.0 pts; past month: +1.0 pts.

Since July 02, 2026, Loki has traded between 36.0% and 87.0%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 79.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202684.5%
Oct 18, 202681.5%
Oct 19, 202681.5%
Oct 20, 202681.5%
Oct 23, 202679.5%
Oct 24, 202679.5%
Oct 24, 202679.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Loki is favored at 79.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Loki80¢79.5%—$6.4K16.2%
Thor70¢69.5%-1.5 pts$4.5K11.5%
Spider-Man65¢65.0%—$6.8K17.3%
Captain America (Sam Wilson)52¢52.5%+0.5 pts$2.8K7.1%
Ant-Man50¢50.5%-1.0 pts$5.9K15.0%
Doctor Strange35¢35.1%+2.4 pts$3.6K9.0%
Steve Rogers32¢32.5%-1.5 pts$7.0K17.8%
Shang-Chi20¢19.5%-9.5 pts$1.2K2.9%
Doctor Doom12¢12.5%+5.0 pts$1.2K3.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 79¢ / ask 80¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$39.5K has been traded on this event in total, $183 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Avengers: Doomsday is scheduled to premiere on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "Avengers: Doomsday". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. Deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "Avengers: Doomsday" will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who are confirmed dead before "Avengers: Doomsday" begins during the film will not count toward this market’s resolution.. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "Avengers: Doomsday" will qualify. Only events depicted in the official "Avengers: Doomsday" film will count toward resolution. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 829 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Rigid-BreakthroughYes829$659
Dense-WhipNo428$88
Grim-CobNo394$81
Big-Hearted-ScoreYes261$208
Frail-GrannyYes260$207
Useful-CreditNo158$32
Thankful-Allegation-FahrenheitNo151$31
Belated-GlueYes150$119
Direct-ChainstayNo106$22
Well-Worn-LoungeYes100$80

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $379 at 78.7%BUY Yes — $173 at 62.0%BUY Yes — $145 at 79.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:27 PM ETYesSELL79.0%$2
Oct 24, 07:49 AM ETNoBUY35.0%$10
Oct 23, 10:00 PM ETNoSELL33.0%$0
Oct 23, 10:20 AM ETYesBUY79.0%$145
Oct 23, 10:20 AM ETYesBUY80.0%$20
Oct 23, 09:47 AM ETYesSELL75.0%$0
Oct 23, 09:44 AM ETYesSELL75.0%$1
Oct 23, 05:14 AM ETNoSELL32.0%$18
Oct 23, 05:14 AM ETYesBUY68.0%$14
Oct 23, 05:14 AM ETNoSELL32.0%$6

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Who will die in Avengers: Doomsday??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Loki at 79.5%. Next is Thor at 69.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-die-in-avengers-doomsday-20260701214257877?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Who will die in Avengers: Doomsday??

$39.5K in total volume, with $183 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.

When does Who will die in Avengers: Doomsday? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Who will die in Avengers: Doomsday?, according to Polymarket traders?

Loki, priced at 79.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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