As of October 24, 2026, 08:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Loki at 79.5% in Who will die in Avengers: Doomsday? — $39.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Loki, is priced at 79.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.0 pts; past month: +1.0 pts.
Since July 02, 2026, Loki has traded between 36.0% and 87.0%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 79.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 79.5% |
Loki is favored at 79.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loki | 80¢ | 79.5% | — | $6.4K | 16.2% |
| Thor | 70¢ | 69.5% | -1.5 pts | $4.5K | 11.5% |
| Spider-Man | 65¢ | 65.0% | — | $6.8K | 17.3% |
| Captain America (Sam Wilson) | 52¢ | 52.5% | +0.5 pts | $2.8K | 7.1% |
| Ant-Man | 50¢ | 50.5% | -1.0 pts | $5.9K | 15.0% |
| Doctor Strange | 35¢ | 35.1% | +2.4 pts | $3.6K | 9.0% |
| Steve Rogers | 32¢ | 32.5% | -1.5 pts | $7.0K | 17.8% |
| Shang-Chi | 20¢ | 19.5% | -9.5 pts | $1.2K | 2.9% |
| Doctor Doom | 12¢ | 12.5% | +5.0 pts | $1.2K | 3.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 79¢ / ask 80¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$39.5K has been traded on this event in total, $183 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Avengers: Doomsday is scheduled to premiere on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "Avengers: Doomsday". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. Deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "Avengers: Doomsday" will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who are confirmed dead before "Avengers: Doomsday" begins during the film will not count toward this market’s resolution.. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "Avengers: Doomsday" will qualify. Only events depicted in the official "Avengers: Doomsday" film will count toward resolution. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 829 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rigid-Breakthrough | Yes | 829 | $659 |
| Dense-Whip | No | 428 | $88 |
| Grim-Cob | No | 394 | $81 |
| Big-Hearted-Score | Yes | 261 | $208 |
| Frail-Granny | Yes | 260 | $207 |
| Useful-Credit | No | 158 | $32 |
| Thankful-Allegation-Fahrenheit | No | 151 | $31 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 150 | $119 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 106 | $22 |
| Well-Worn-Lounge | Yes | 100 | $80 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 79.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:49 AM ET | No | BUY | 35.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 10:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 33.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 10:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 79.0% | $145 |
| Oct 23, 10:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.0% | $20 |
| Oct 23, 09:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 75.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 09:44 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 75.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 05:14 AM ET | No | SELL | 32.0% | $18 |
| Oct 23, 05:14 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.0% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 05:14 AM ET | No | SELL | 32.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Loki at 79.5%. Next is Thor at 69.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-die-in-avengers-doomsday-20260701214257877?via=bro
$39.5K in total volume, with $183 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Loki, priced at 79.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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