Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Who will die in The Witcher: Season 5?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:03 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Geralt of Rivia at 85.0% in Who will die in The Witcher: Season 5? — $34.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
Geralt of Rivia
85%
A 85.0% price implies roughly a 85-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.0 pts7D −4.5 pts
Geralt of Rivia85.0%
Vilgefortz75.5%
Bid
74¢
Ask
96¢
Spread
22¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since May 13, 2026: 29.0% – 93.0% · Opened at 29.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Who will die in The Witcher: Season 5?
Category
Culture, Movies
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$34.2K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$1.6K
Markets
9
Leading outcome
Geralt of Rivia — 85.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Geralt of Rivia, is priced at 85.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: -4.5 pts.

Since May 13, 2026, Geralt of Rivia has traded between 29.0% and 93.0%. It opened at 29.0% and last traded at 85.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202684.0%
Oct 16, 202684.5%
Oct 18, 202689.5%
Oct 19, 202684.0%
Oct 20, 202684.0%
Oct 24, 202685.0%
Oct 24, 202685.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Geralt of Rivia is favored at 85.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Geralt of Rivia85¢85.0%+1.0 pts$28.5K83.4%
Vilgefortz76¢75.5%—$1.4K4.1%
Regis69¢69.0%+0.5 pts$1290.4%
Yennefer of Vengerberg51¢51.0%+1.5 pts$3.6K10.4%
Jaskier50¢50.5%+0.5 pts$10.0%
Cahir50¢50.5%+0.5 pts$100.0%
Emhyr50¢50.0%+0.5 pts$5531.6%
Princess Cirilla42¢42.0%+0.5 pts$70.0%
Milva37¢37.0%—$230.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 22¢ (bid 74¢ / ask 96¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$34.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Season 5 of The Witcher is expected to air on Netflix in late 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "The Witcher: Season 5". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. Deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "The Witcher: Season 5" will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who were already confirmed dead before "The Witcher: Season 5" begins will not count toward this market’s resolution. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "The Witcher: Season 5" will qualify. Only events depicted in official "The Witcher: Season 5" episodes will count toward resolution. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,910 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Attached-LengthYes2,910$2.5K
Early-SupernaturalNo1,296$194
Essential-DiaristNo1,221$183
Brave-CornflakesNo1,000$150
Fickle-OutlayYes971$825
Mild-UnitYes683$580
Evil-RowNo551$83
Tremendous-DivideNo250$38
Wilted-Burden-SurvivorYes150$128
Belated-GlueNo86$13

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $465 at 93.0%BUY Yes — $80 at 80.0%BUY Yes — $74 at 69.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 20, 06:02 AM ETYesSELL57.3%$1
Oct 17, 09:50 AM ETNoBUY11.0%$1
Oct 15, 02:30 AM ETNoBUY20.0%$11
Oct 06, 11:42 AM ETNoBUY22.0%$20
Sep 28, 03:46 PM ETNoBUY14.0%$1
Sep 27, 09:52 PM ETNoBUY13.0%$1
Sep 08, 07:54 AM ETYesSELL75.4%$12
Sep 06, 06:09 PM ETNoBUY21.0%$5
Sep 03, 04:44 PM ETNoBUY22.0%$3
Aug 18, 03:35 PM ETNoSELL4.4%$63

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Who will die in The Witcher: Season 5??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Geralt of Rivia at 85.0%. Next is Vilgefortz at 75.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-die-in-the-witcher-season-5?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Who will die in The Witcher: Season 5??

$34.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.

When does Who will die in The Witcher: Season 5? end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Who will die in The Witcher: Season 5?, according to Polymarket traders?

Geralt of Rivia, priced at 85.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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