Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Anthropic at 97.2% in Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027? — $61.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $200.
Leading outcome
Anthropic
97%
A 97.2% price implies roughly a 97-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.2 pts7D +69.7 pts
Anthropic97.2%
Microsoft43.5%
Bid
96¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
3¢
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Range since October 08, 2026: 18.5% – 97.2% · Opened at 39.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?
Category
AI, Tech, amazon, Big Tech, Anthropic, microsoft, Perplexity
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$61.0K
Volume (24h)
$200
Liquidity
$14.2K
Markets
4
Leading outcome
Anthropic — 97.2%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Anthropic, is priced at 97.2%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.2 pts; past week: +69.7 pts.

Since October 08, 2026, Anthropic has traded between 18.5% and 97.2%. It opened at 39.5% and last traded at 97.2%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202627.5%
Oct 18, 202627.5%
Oct 19, 202627.5%
Oct 20, 202627.5%
Oct 22, 202696.2%
Oct 23, 202697.0%
Oct 24, 202697.2%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Anthropic is favored at 97.2%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Anthropic97¢97.2%+0.2 pts$22.6K37.1%
Microsoft44¢43.5%+4.0 pts$13.1K21.5%
Perplexity24¢24.0%—$15.1K24.8%
Amazon8¢8.5%—$10.2K16.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$61.0K has been traded on this event in total, $200 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

On September 8, 2026, Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that runs on a cloud computer dedicated to each user and carries out tasks, such as sending email and booking travel (https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/introducing-muse-personal-ai-agent/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company launches a Muse-like personal agent by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Muse-like personal agent is an AI agent that runs on a cloud computer provided by the listed company that is dedicated to the individual user and remains assigned to that user between tasks, can begin tasks on its own, such as on a schedule or when a new email arrives, and can take actions on websites or in the user's connected accounts, such as sending email or submitting forms. Computing environments created for each task or session will not qualify. Products limited to a single type of task, such as coding, software development, email, or travel booking, offered only through an API, or sold only to businesses will not qualify. A Muse-like personal agent must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. Availability limited to paid subscription plans or to certain countries will qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,744 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Clueless-Dugout-TomtomYes2,744$2.7K
Villainous-CrookNo1,060$30
Forked-OriginalYes523$509
Unique-PrimaryNo515$14
Gleaming-HandlebarYes447$434
Verifiable-ObstacleNo381$11
Known-UseNo230$6
Pleasing-ElmNo204$6
Dearest-AgendaYes164$160
Elated-Conspirator-CopyingNo160$4

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $711 at 81.2%SELL No — $699 at 79.9%BUY Yes — $500 at 95.6%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:11 PM ETNoSELL75.0%$38
Oct 24, 01:22 PM ETNoBUY5.1%$1
Oct 24, 12:42 AM ETYesSELL39.0%$8
Oct 24, 12:11 AM ETNoBUY59.0%$12
Oct 24, 12:11 AM ETNoBUY60.0%$12
Oct 23, 11:41 PM ETNoBUY4.1%$1
Oct 23, 09:58 PM ETNoBUY61.0%$3
Oct 23, 09:58 PM ETNoBUY61.0%$12
Oct 23, 09:58 PM ETYesSELL39.0%$10
Oct 23, 04:14 PM ETNoSELL2.0%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 97.2%. Next is Microsoft at 43.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-launch-a-muse-like-personal-agent-before-2027?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027??

$61.0K in total volume, with $200 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.

When does Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?, according to Polymarket traders?

Anthropic, priced at 97.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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