As of October 24, 2026, 07:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Anthropic at 97.2% in Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027? — $61.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Anthropic, is priced at 97.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.2 pts; past week: +69.7 pts.
Since October 08, 2026, Anthropic has traded between 18.5% and 97.2%. It opened at 39.5% and last traded at 97.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 27.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 27.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 27.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 27.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.2% |
Anthropic is favored at 97.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 97¢ | 97.2% | +0.2 pts | $22.6K | 37.1% |
| Microsoft | 44¢ | 43.5% | +4.0 pts | $13.1K | 21.5% |
| Perplexity | 24¢ | 24.0% | — | $15.1K | 24.8% |
| Amazon | 8¢ | 8.5% | — | $10.2K | 16.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$61.0K has been traded on this event in total, $200 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On September 8, 2026, Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that runs on a cloud computer dedicated to each user and carries out tasks, such as sending email and booking travel (https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/introducing-muse-personal-ai-agent/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company launches a Muse-like personal agent by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Muse-like personal agent is an AI agent that runs on a cloud computer provided by the listed company that is dedicated to the individual user and remains assigned to that user between tasks, can begin tasks on its own, such as on a schedule or when a new email arrives, and can take actions on websites or in the user's connected accounts, such as sending email or submitting forms. Computing environments created for each task or session will not qualify. Products limited to a single type of task, such as coding, software development, email, or travel booking, offered only through an API, or sold only to businesses will not qualify. A Muse-like personal agent must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. Availability limited to paid subscription plans or to certain countries will qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,744 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clueless-Dugout-Tomtom | Yes | 2,744 | $2.7K |
| Villainous-Crook | No | 1,060 | $30 |
| Forked-Original | Yes | 523 | $509 |
| Unique-Primary | No | 515 | $14 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 447 | $434 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 381 | $11 |
| Known-Use | No | 230 | $6 |
| Pleasing-Elm | No | 204 | $6 |
| Dearest-Agenda | Yes | 164 | $160 |
| Elated-Conspirator-Copying | No | 160 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 75.0% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 01:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 5.1% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:42 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 39.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 12:11 AM ET | No | BUY | 59.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 12:11 AM ET | No | BUY | 60.0% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 11:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 4.1% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 09:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 61.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 09:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 61.0% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 09:58 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 39.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 04:14 PM ET | No | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 97.2%. Next is Microsoft at 43.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-launch-a-muse-like-personal-agent-before-2027?via=bro
$61.0K in total volume, with $200 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Anthropic, priced at 97.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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