As of October 24, 2026, 06:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Kristi Noem at 46.6% in Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? — $1.46M traded so far.
The leading outcome, Kristi Noem, is priced at 46.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +7.1 pts; past week: +11.5 pts; past month: +13.6 pts.
Since December 19, 2025, Kristi Noem has traded between 14.9% and 70.2%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 44.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 35.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 31.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 27.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 27.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 28.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 41.6% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 44.4% |
Kristi Noem is favored at 46.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristi Noem | 47¢ | 46.6% | +7.1 pts | $99.4K | 6.8% |
| Susie Wiles | 34¢ | 34.5% | +1.5 pts | $66.3K | 4.5% |
| Markwayne Mullin | 33¢ | 33.0% | — | $2.9K | 0.2% |
| Dan Scavino | 29¢ | 29.0% | +0.8 pts | $137 | 0.0% |
| Pete Hegseth | 22¢ | 22.0% | -2.0 pts | $140.7K | 9.6% |
| Tom Homan | 22¢ | 21.5% | -1.5 pts | $643 | 0.0% |
| Kash Patel | 18¢ | 17.5% | -0.5 pts | $310.6K | 21.3% |
| Russell Vought | 18¢ | 17.5% | +3.5 pts | $415 | 0.0% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 15¢ | 15.0% | — | $93.4K | 6.4% |
| Howard Lutnick | 14¢ | 13.5% | — | $100.6K | 6.9% |
| Stephen Miller | 13¢ | 13.0% | +5.0 pts | $6.7K | 0.5% |
| John Ratcliffe | 11¢ | 11.0% | +2.5 pts | $698 | 0.0% |
| David Sacks | 9¢ | 9.0% | +1.4 pts | $10.2K | 0.7% |
| Marco Rubio | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $24.6K | 1.7% |
| Scott Bessent | 8¢ | 7.5% | +2.0 pts | $14.6K | 1.0% |
| Lee Zeldin | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $34.6K | 2.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 49¢ (bid 22¢ / ask 71¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.46M has been traded on this event in total, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 16 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,805 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smoggy-Antique | Yes | 1,805 | $840 |
| Fearful-Congress | No | 1,071 | $573 |
| Sad-Catalysis | Yes | 1,000 | $466 |
| Timely-Inflation | No | 871 | $466 |
| Plastic-Larder | No | 625 | $334 |
| Shameless-Thread | No | 616 | $329 |
| Proud-Homework | No | 585 | $313 |
| Forceful-Insomnia | Yes | 542 | $252 |
| Spherical-Doc | No | 444 | $237 |
| Solid-Creator | No | 296 | $158 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 03:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 03:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 03:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.1% | $85 |
| Oct 24, 02:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 09:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $58 |
| Oct 24, 01:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 12:59 AM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $23 |
| Oct 23, 09:59 PM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 09:59 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.5% | $13 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Kristi Noem at 46.6%. Next is Susie Wiles at 34.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027?via=bro
$1.46M in total volume, with $1.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 16 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Kristi Noem, priced at 46.6% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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