As of October 24, 2026, 08:12 PM ET, Polymarket traders price J.D. Vance at 51.0% in Who will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election? — $22.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, J.D. Vance, is priced at 51.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -0.5 pts; past month: +0.5 pts.
Since July 30, 2026, J.D. Vance has traded between 37.0% and 55.5%. It opened at 38.0% and last traded at 50.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 50.5% |
J.D. Vance is favored at 51.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 51¢ | 51.0% | +0.5 pts | $9.0K | 39.7% |
| Person A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AA | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AB | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AC | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AD | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AE | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AF | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AG | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AH | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AI | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AJ | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AK | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AL | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AM | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AN | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AO | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AP | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AQ | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AR | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AS | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AT | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AU | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AV | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AW | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AX | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AY | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AZ | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Marco Rubio | 22¢ | 22.0% | +3.5 pts | $3.6K | 16.1% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 5¢ | 5.1% | — | $540 | 2.4% |
| Eric Trump | 5¢ | 4.7% | — | $453 | 2.0% |
| Donald Trump | 4¢ | 4.0% | -0.1 pts | $1.6K | 7.2% |
| Elon Musk | 3¢ | 3.2% | — | $586 | 2.6% |
| Tucker Carlson | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $565 | 2.5% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $440 | 1.9% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $428 | 1.9% |
| Ted Cruz | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $437 | 1.9% |
| Ron DeSantis | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $500 | 2.2% |
| Greg Abbott | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $432 | 1.9% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $440 | 1.9% |
| Byron Donalds | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $433 | 1.9% |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $443 | 2.0% |
| Brian Kemp | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $438 | 1.9% |
| Thomas Massie | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $432 | 1.9% |
| Rand Paul | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $494 | 2.2% |
| Ivanka Trump | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $541 | 2.4% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $399 | 1.8% |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $388 | 1.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 50¢ / ask 52¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$22.7K has been traded on this event in total, $46 of it in the last 24 hours, across 74 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 06, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election. An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election. An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,363 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,363 | $668 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 700 | $357 |
| Spiffy-Enactment-Strength | Yes | 410 | $209 |
| Hideous-Racer | Yes | 300 | $153 |
| Past-Disguise | No | 264 | $129 |
| Dense-Whip | No | 72 | $35 |
| Fruitful-Exhibition | Yes | 57 | $29 |
| Known-Use | No | 56 | $27 |
| Creative-Wheel | Yes | 52 | $26 |
| Insubstantial-Index | Yes | 45 | $23 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:59 PM ET | No | BUY | 73.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 02:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 02:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:04 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 50.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 10:45 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 49.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $29 |
| Oct 23, 06:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 06:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is J.D. Vance at 51.0%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-endorse-first-in-the-2028-us-presidential-election-20260727202224755?via=bro
$22.7K in total volume, with $46 traded in the last 24 hours across 74 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 06, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
J.D. Vance, priced at 51.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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