As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Stefan Brodie at 19.5% in Who will Trump pardon before 2027? — $534.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Stefan Brodie, is priced at 19.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.0 pts.
Since November 19, 2025, Stefan Brodie has traded between 11.0% and 73.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 19.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 19.5% |
Stefan Brodie is favored at 19.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Brodie | 20¢ | 19.5% | — | $3.7K | 0.7% |
| Donald Brodie | 14¢ | 14.5% | -2.5 pts | $18.2K | 3.4% |
| Ryan Salame | 12¢ | 12.5% | +0.5 pts | $34.4K | 6.4% |
| Steve Bannon | 8¢ | 7.8% | +0.4 pts | $13.0K | 2.4% |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $20.2K | 3.8% |
| Matt Gaetz | 7¢ | 7.0% | +1.5 pts | $8.0K | 1.5% |
| Elizabeth Holmes | 6¢ | 5.5% | +0.1 pts | $7.5K | 1.4% |
| Roger Ver | 5¢ | 5.3% | — | $3.2K | 0.6% |
| Daniel Penny | 5¢ | 5.3% | -1.2 pts | $1.2K | 0.2% |
| Bob Menendez | 5¢ | 5.1% | -2.6 pts | $390 | 0.1% |
| Derek Chauvin | 5¢ | 4.6% | +1.6 pts | $28.4K | 5.3% |
| Joe Exotic | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $5.7K | 1.1% |
| Diddy | 4¢ | 4.5% | -0.4 pts | $34.2K | 6.4% |
| Julian Assange | 4¢ | 4.4% | +0.7 pts | $4.5K | 0.8% |
| Roger Stone | 4¢ | 3.8% | +0.4 pts | $11.6K | 2.2% |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 4¢ | 3.8% | -0.3 pts | $29.7K | 5.6% |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 4¢ | 3.6% | +0.4 pts | $145.3K | 27.2% |
| Edward Snowden | 4¢ | 3.6% | -0.1 pts | $3.3K | 0.6% |
| Young Thug | 3¢ | 3.4% | +0.2 pts | $5.4K | 1.0% |
| Nicolas Maduro | 3¢ | 3.4% | — | $11.4K | 2.1% |
| Eric Adams | 3¢ | 3.2% | -0.1 pts | $1.9K | 0.3% |
| Martin Shkreli | 3¢ | 3.1% | -0.4 pts | $31.6K | 5.9% |
| Antoine Massey | 3¢ | 2.9% | -0.4 pts | $2.5K | 0.5% |
| Do Kwon | 3¢ | 2.8% | — | $23.7K | 4.4% |
| Elon Musk | 3¢ | 2.6% | — | $53.1K | 9.9% |
| Andrew Tate | 2¢ | 2.5% | -0.1 pts | $1.7K | 0.3% |
| Hunter Biden | 2¢ | 2.2% | +0.1 pts | $5.7K | 1.1% |
| Himself | 2¢ | 2.0% | -1.0 pts | $25.2K | 4.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 19¢ / ask 20¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$534.8K has been traded on this event in total, $2.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 28 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 230 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 230 | $45 |
| Dear-Acoustics | No | 229 | $184 |
| Pink-Zampone | No | 100 | $80 |
| Helpful-Cheese | Yes | 66 | $13 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 50 | $10 |
| Puzzling-Haversack | No | 34 | $28 |
| Prestigious-Zephyr-Jail | Yes | 32 | $6 |
| Violent-Hubcap | No | 25 | $20 |
| Straight-Hunting | Yes | 20 | $4 |
| 0x6b0ebbef… | Yes | 20 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 03:36 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.3% | $71 |
| Oct 22, 03:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.3% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 09:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 06:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 06:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 06:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 12:48 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.5% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 12:48 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.5% | $34 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Stefan Brodie at 19.5%. Next is Donald Brodie at 14.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027?via=bro
$534.8K in total volume, with $2.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 28 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Stefan Brodie, priced at 19.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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