Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price J.B. Pritzker at 69.5% in Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31? — $157.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.3K.
Leading outcome
J.B. Pritzker
70%
A 69.5% price implies roughly a 70-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +30.1 pts
J.B. Pritzker69.5%
Hakeem Jeffries55.5%
Bid
49¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
41¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 01, 2026: 39.4% – 94.5% · Opened at 94.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
Category
Trump, Culture, Politics, Recurring, Trump-Netanyahu
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET
Total volume
$157.4K
Volume (24h)
$2.3K
Liquidity
$4.4K
Markets
21
Leading outcome
J.B. Pritzker — 69.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, J.B. Pritzker, is priced at 69.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +30.1 pts.

Since October 01, 2026, J.B. Pritzker has traded between 39.4% and 94.5%. It opened at 94.5% and last traded at 69.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202639.4%
Oct 18, 202671.8%
Oct 19, 202669.7%
Oct 20, 202669.1%
Oct 22, 202669.5%
Oct 23, 202669.5%
Oct 24, 202669.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

J.B. Pritzker is favored at 69.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
J.B. Pritzker70¢69.5%—$7170.5%
Hakeem Jeffries56¢55.5%-17.0 pts$5.7K3.6%
Tucker Carlson53¢53.0%+12.0 pts$9.4K6.0%
Mark Carney29¢29.0%-2.5 pts$3.4K2.2%
Stephen Colbert19¢19.0%-0.5 pts$580.0%
Zohran Mamdani13¢13.0%-1.0 pts$7.3K4.7%
Dario Amodei12¢12.5%+1.5 pts$940.1%
Candace Owens12¢12.0%-0.5 pts$8.9K5.7%
Emmanuel Macron12¢11.8%-3.1 pts$1.6K1.0%
Friedrich Merz10¢10.5%—$3.5K2.2%
Ken Paxton10¢10.0%-1.5 pts$4.6K2.9%
Andy Burnham8¢8.0%+4.1 pts$1.2K0.7%
Mike Rogers8¢8.0%—$5690.4%
Benjamin Netanyahu8¢7.9%-4.1 pts$1.9K1.2%
Masoud Pezeshkian3¢3.4%-0.9 pts$2140.1%
Pope Leo XIV3¢3.0%—$2.6K1.7%
Vladimir Putin3¢2.9%-0.2 pts$1.8K1.1%
Kevin Warsh3¢2.8%-0.9 pts$7950.5%
Elon Musk2¢1.9%—$4520.3%
J.D. Vance2¢1.7%-1.4 pts$2.6K1.7%
Xi Jinping1¢0.9%-0.8 pts$5530.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 41¢ (bid 49¢ / ask 90¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$157.4K has been traded on this event in total, $2.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 21 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 161 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Uncommon-Gutter-StanceNo161$49
Quarrelsome-FilthYes121$84
Stimulating-SpasmYes70$49
0x46299616…Yes30$21
Thorough-NeighbourhoodYes20$14
Charming-Kidney-ImaginationNo20$6
0xa28fead0…No20$6
Wry-Synthesis-MasterpieceNo16$5
Celebrated-DetectionYes15$11
Stingy-DestructionNo15$5

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $798 at 82.0%SELL No — $225 at 86.5%SELL No — $190 at 82.7%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:09 PM ETNoBUY52.3%$39
Oct 24, 11:24 AM ETYesBUY40.0%$8
Oct 24, 06:37 AM ETNoBUY86.0%$25
Oct 24, 06:35 AM ETNoSELL87.0%$35
Oct 24, 04:01 AM ETYesSELL57.0%$11
Oct 24, 03:00 AM ETYesBUY36.0%$7
Oct 24, 12:29 AM ETNoBUY60.2%$15
Oct 24, 12:29 AM ETYesBUY37.0%$28
Oct 23, 09:47 AM ETNoBUY86.0%$17
Oct 23, 09:47 AM ETNoBUY84.0%$17

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is J.B. Pritzker at 69.5%. Next is Hakeem Jeffries at 55.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-october-31-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31??

$157.4K in total volume, with $2.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 21 markets.

When does Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

J.B. Pritzker, priced at 69.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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