Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Dario Amodei at 45.8% in Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31? — $93.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $798.
Leading outcome
Dario Amodei
46%
A 45.8% price implies roughly a 46-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +20.8 pts7D +22.2 pts
Dario Amodei45.8%
Delcy Rodriguez29.5%
Bid
5¢
Ask
86¢
Spread
82¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 01, 2026: 15.0% – 72.5% · Opened at 72.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?
Category
Trump, Culture, Politics, Recurring
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET
Total volume
$93.2K
Volume (24h)
$798
Liquidity
$2.1K
Markets
12
Leading outcome
Dario Amodei — 45.8%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Dario Amodei, is priced at 45.8%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +20.8 pts; past week: +22.2 pts.

Since October 01, 2026, Dario Amodei has traded between 15.0% and 72.5%. It opened at 72.5% and last traded at 45.8%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202623.5%
Oct 18, 202624.5%
Oct 19, 202667.3%
Oct 20, 202624.6%
Oct 22, 202645.1%
Oct 23, 202624.9%
Oct 24, 202645.8%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Dario Amodei is favored at 45.8%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Dario Amodei46¢45.8%+20.8 pts$7.3K7.8%
Delcy Rodriguez30¢29.5%-26.0 pts$3.2K3.5%
Zohran Mamdani25¢25.0%-16.0 pts$5.5K5.9%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy24¢24.5%-18.5 pts$3.6K3.9%
Javier Milei21¢21.0%+1.5 pts$5.6K6.0%
Bryson DeChambeau20¢20.5%-7.0 pts$3.4K3.7%
Kim Jong Un18¢17.5%-2.5 pts$2.5K2.7%
Mark Rutte17¢17.0%-3.5 pts$5.5K6.0%
Gianni Infantino14¢14.5%+4.0 pts$8.6K9.2%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva14¢14.0%-16.5 pts$2.0K2.1%
Warren Buffett12¢11.5%-5.5 pts$6.7K7.2%
Jon Rahm8¢8.0%—$1460.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 82¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 86¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$93.2K has been traded on this event in total, $798 of it in the last 24 hours, across 12 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he praises the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain praising language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Praising language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as praise, or endorses praising language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 251 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Peaceful-KittyNo251$136
Belated-GlueYes157$72
Direct-ChainstayYes131$60
Arid-CinemaNo100$54
Required-HornYes77$35
Quarrelsome-FilthYes55$25
Gleaming-HandlebarYes50$23
Wry-Friction-BanquetteNo42$23
Oddball-PoisonYes40$18
Sociable-PendulumNo34$19

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $128 at 38.2%BUY No — $109 at 63.0%SELL Yes — $106 at 20.3%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:06 PM ETYesBUY14.0%$1
Oct 24, 06:38 AM ETYesBUY9.9%$9
Oct 23, 08:21 PM ETNoBUY55.3%$10
Oct 23, 08:11 PM ETNoBUY55.2%$1
Oct 23, 08:07 PM ETYesBUY23.2%$5
Oct 23, 06:17 PM ETNoSELL86.0%$44
Oct 23, 05:41 PM ETNoSELL64.0%$6
Oct 23, 03:04 PM ETYesBUY9.0%$2
Oct 23, 03:04 PM ETNoSELL93.7%$56
Oct 23, 07:58 AM ETNoBUY88.0%$35

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Dario Amodei at 45.8%. Next is Delcy Rodriguez at 29.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-october-31-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31??

$93.2K in total volume, with $798 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 markets.

When does Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

Dario Amodei, priced at 45.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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