As of October 24, 2026, 06:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Dario Amodei at 45.8% in Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31? — $93.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Dario Amodei, is priced at 45.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +20.8 pts; past week: +22.2 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, Dario Amodei has traded between 15.0% and 72.5%. It opened at 72.5% and last traded at 45.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 23.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 67.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 24.6% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 45.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 24.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 45.8% |
Dario Amodei is favored at 45.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dario Amodei | 46¢ | 45.8% | +20.8 pts | $7.3K | 7.8% |
| Delcy Rodriguez | 30¢ | 29.5% | -26.0 pts | $3.2K | 3.5% |
| Zohran Mamdani | 25¢ | 25.0% | -16.0 pts | $5.5K | 5.9% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 24¢ | 24.5% | -18.5 pts | $3.6K | 3.9% |
| Javier Milei | 21¢ | 21.0% | +1.5 pts | $5.6K | 6.0% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 20¢ | 20.5% | -7.0 pts | $3.4K | 3.7% |
| Kim Jong Un | 18¢ | 17.5% | -2.5 pts | $2.5K | 2.7% |
| Mark Rutte | 17¢ | 17.0% | -3.5 pts | $5.5K | 6.0% |
| Gianni Infantino | 14¢ | 14.5% | +4.0 pts | $8.6K | 9.2% |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 14¢ | 14.0% | -16.5 pts | $2.0K | 2.1% |
| Warren Buffett | 12¢ | 11.5% | -5.5 pts | $6.7K | 7.2% |
| Jon Rahm | 8¢ | 8.0% | — | $146 | 0.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 82¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 86¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$93.2K has been traded on this event in total, $798 of it in the last 24 hours, across 12 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he praises the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain praising language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Praising language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as praise, or endorses praising language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 251 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peaceful-Kitty | No | 251 | $136 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 157 | $72 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 131 | $60 |
| Arid-Cinema | No | 100 | $54 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 77 | $35 |
| Quarrelsome-Filth | Yes | 55 | $25 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 50 | $23 |
| Wry-Friction-Banquette | No | 42 | $23 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 40 | $18 |
| Sociable-Pendulum | No | 34 | $19 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:38 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.9% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 08:21 PM ET | No | BUY | 55.3% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 08:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 55.2% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 08:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.2% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 06:17 PM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $44 |
| Oct 23, 05:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 64.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 03:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 03:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.7% | $56 |
| Oct 23, 07:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $35 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Dario Amodei at 45.8%. Next is Delcy Rodriguez at 29.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-publicly-praise-by-october-31-2026?via=bro
$93.2K in total volume, with $798 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
Dario Amodei, priced at 45.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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