As of October 24, 2026, 06:35 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Ursula von der Leyen at 66.0% in Who will visit Ukraine by December 31? — $631.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Ursula von der Leyen, is priced at 66.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: +16.5 pts; past month: +44.5 pts.
Since July 30, 2026, Ursula von der Leyen has traded between 18.5% and 76.5%. It opened at 60.0% and last traded at 67.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 45.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 66.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 67.5% |
Ursula von der Leyen is favored at 66.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ursula von der Leyen | 66¢ | 66.0% | -1.5 pts | $13.1K | 2.1% |
| Mark Rutte | 49¢ | 49.0% | +7.5 pts | $76.1K | 12.0% |
| Emmanuel Macron | 12¢ | 12.0% | +0.5 pts | $12.2K | 1.9% |
| António Guterres | 12¢ | 12.0% | — | $9.9K | 1.6% |
| Mark Carney | 11¢ | 11.0% | — | $14.7K | 2.3% |
| JD Vance | 5¢ | 5.5% | -0.1 pts | $148.1K | 23.4% |
| Donald Trump | 3¢ | 2.8% | -0.6 pts | $109.4K | 17.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 24¢ (bid 54¢ / ask 78¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$631.9K has been traded on this event in total, $671 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 685 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x93660523… | No | 685 | $233 |
| Quarrelsome-Filth | Yes | 312 | $206 |
| Grown-Flanker | Yes | 258 | $170 |
| Agonizing-Familiarity | Yes | 151 | $100 |
| Essential-Boar-Harmonize | Yes | 147 | $97 |
| Defensive-Snuck | No | 126 | $43 |
| Evil-Row | No | 84 | $29 |
| Absolute-Cockpit-Dungarees | No | 50 | $17 |
| Unwieldy-Drawer | Yes | 48 | $32 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 30 | $20 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 48.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 12:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 12:01 PM ET | No | SELL | 57.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 12:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 43.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 12:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 43.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 43.0% | $58 |
| Oct 24, 12:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 11:05 AM ET | No | SELL | 57.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 09:53 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 43.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 53.0% | $13 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Ursula von der Leyen at 66.0%. Next is Mark Rutte at 49.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-visit-ukraine-by-december-31-20260729205841876?via=bro
$631.9K in total volume, with $671 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Ursula von der Leyen, priced at 66.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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