As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate at 67.0% in Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms? — $196.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate, is priced at 67.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.1 pts; past week: +6.2 pts.
Since October 12, 2026, No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate has traded between 58.4% and 69.1%. It opened at 58.7% and last traded at 67.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 58.4% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 60.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 61.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 64.3% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 69.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 67.0% |
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate is favored at 67.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | 67¢ | 67.0% | -2.1 pts | $58.7K | 29.8% |
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 30¢ | 29.5% | +2.2 pts | $50.3K | 25.6% |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | 2¢ | 2.4% | -0.3 pts | $32.5K | 16.5% |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | 2¢ | 1.5% | -0.2 pts | $55.3K | 28.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 67¢ / ask 67¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$196.8K has been traded on this event in total, $3.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,012 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 5,012 | $1.7K |
| Sociable-Rooster | Yes | 2,984 | $2.0K |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 1,852 | $1.2K |
| Angry-Jaw | No | 679 | $224 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | Yes | 500 | $335 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 393 | $263 |
| Distorted-Crook | No | 250 | $82 |
| Ancient-Autoimmunity | No | 200 | $66 |
| 0x25838295… | Yes | 166 | $111 |
| Angelic-Craw | Yes | 90 | $60 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:33 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.2% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 32.5% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 67.6% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 67.2% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 32.9% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 32.9% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 70.9% | $46 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.3% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.4% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 33.0% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate at 67.0%. Next is No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate at 29.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-wins-the-senate-pending-hormuz-agreement-and-oil-below-80?via=bro
$196.8K in total volume, with $3.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate, priced at 67.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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