As of October 24, 2026, 06:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No Hormuz Agreement at 90.4% in Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? — $1.54M traded so far.
The leading outcome, No Hormuz Agreement, is priced at 90.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.8 pts; past week: +0.5 pts.
Since October 11, 2026, No Hormuz Agreement has traded between 83.1% and 95.2%. It opened at 83.1% and last traded at 90.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 94.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 85.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 88.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 92.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 90.4% |
No Hormuz Agreement is favored at 90.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Hormuz Agreement | 90¢ | 90.4% | -0.8 pts | $718.4K | 46.7% |
| Hormuz Agreement; D Senate | 8¢ | 7.6% | +2.0 pts | $460.2K | 29.9% |
| Hormuz Agreement; R Senate | 2¢ | 1.6% | -0.6 pts | $360.6K | 23.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 90¢ / ask 91¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.54M has been traded on this event in total, $46.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; R Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; D Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "No Hormuz Agreement" immediately if a Hormuz Agreement is not announced by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Hormuz Agreement: A "Hormuz Agreement" will be considered to have occurred if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is announced by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Hormuz Agreement component to be met. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 123,310 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vibrant-Vintner | No | 123,310 | $11.8K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 58,433 | $5.6K |
| Serene-Sculpting | Yes | 35,978 | $32.5K |
| Meaty-Place | Yes | 27,030 | $24.4K |
| Accurate-Spirit | Yes | 19,578 | $17.7K |
| Personal-Bake | Yes | 17,811 | $16.1K |
| Grounded-Depression | Yes | 15,000 | $13.6K |
| Frozen-Birdwatcher | Yes | 10,000 | $9.0K |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 8,573 | $7.8K |
| 0x91c363ac… | Yes | 8,376 | $7.6K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 91.1% | $103 |
| Oct 24, 06:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.3% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 06:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.4% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 06:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 91.9% | $184 |
| Oct 24, 06:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.8% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 05:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 10.3% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 89.7% | $887 |
| Oct 24, 05:31 PM ET | No | SELL | 8.8% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 90.9% | $110 |
| Oct 24, 05:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.9% | $15 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is No Hormuz Agreement at 90.4%. Next is Hormuz Agreement; D Senate at 7.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-wins-the-senate-pending-hormuz-agreement-before-the-midterms?via=bro
$1.54M in total volume, with $46.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No Hormuz Agreement, priced at 90.4% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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