As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate at 68.0% in Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms? — $394.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate, is priced at 68.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.6 pts; past week: +3.8 pts.
Since October 12, 2026, No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate has traded between 61.8% and 70.2%. It opened at 61.8% and last traded at 68.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 62.1% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 65.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 67.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 70.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 68.0% |
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate is favored at 68.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | 68¢ | 68.0% | -1.6 pts | $64.7K | 16.4% |
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 32¢ | 31.8% | +2.0 pts | $81.7K | 20.7% |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $125.4K | 31.8% |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $122.5K | 31.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 67¢ / ask 69¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$394.4K has been traded on this event in total, $11.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 14,846 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 14,846 | $4.8K |
| Oblong-Riser | Yes | 11,950 | $8.1K |
| Angry-Jaw | No | 4,618 | $1.5K |
| Perfumed-Moat | Yes | 1,256 | $853 |
| Careful-Bunch | Yes | 808 | $549 |
| Obvious-Eyebrow | Yes | 694 | $471 |
| 0xa169f83d… | Yes | 620 | $422 |
| Purple-Centre | Yes | 600 | $408 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 532 | $362 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | Yes | 504 | $343 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 68.2% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 67.5% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 68.1% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 68.9% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 70.8% | $117 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 68.4% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 68.4% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 05:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 70.0% | $22 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate at 68.0%. Next is No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate at 31.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-wins-the-senate-pending-hormuz-agreement-by-oct-23-and-oil-below-80?via=bro
$394.4K in total volume, with $11.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate, priced at 68.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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