As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Oil ≥ $85; D Senate at 64.6% in Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms? — $1.18M traded so far.
The leading outcome, Oil ≥ $85; D Senate, is priced at 64.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.7 pts; past week: +4.2 pts.
Since October 12, 2026, Oil ≥ $85; D Senate has traded between 51.0% and 59.0%. It opened at 51.0% and last traded at 58.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 51.0% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 51.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 51.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 56.6% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 58.7% |
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate is favored at 64.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil ≥ $85; D Senate | 65¢ | 64.6% | -0.7 pts | $297.9K | 25.3% |
| Oil ≥ $85; R Senate | 28¢ | 28.3% | +0.3 pts | $216.1K | 18.3% |
| Oil < $85; R Senate | 4¢ | 3.6% | — | $337.1K | 28.6% |
| Oil < $85; D Senate | 3¢ | 3.1% | -0.2 pts | $327.8K | 27.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 64¢ / ask 65¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.18M has been traded on this event in total, $22.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; R Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; D Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85; R Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85; D Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Oil price: The oil price component will be determined based on the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the November 2, 2026 trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 49,491 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 49,491 | $17.5K |
| Private-Towtruck | Yes | 9,003 | $5.8K |
| Attached-Pump | Yes | 8,095 | $5.2K |
| Perfumed-Moat | Yes | 5,375 | $3.5K |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 3,108 | $2.0K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 2,072 | $1.3K |
| Courteous-Dwell | Yes | 2,000 | $1.3K |
| Good-Natured-Angora | Yes | 2,000 | $1.3K |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 1,977 | $1.3K |
| Automatic-Cappuccino | Yes | 1,893 | $1.2K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:53 PM ET | No | SELL | 35.1% | $70 |
| Oct 24, 06:53 PM ET | No | BUY | 35.7% | $71 |
| Oct 24, 06:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.6% | $91 |
| Oct 24, 06:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 35.7% | $107 |
| Oct 24, 05:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 64.9% | $279 |
| Oct 24, 04:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 64.9% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 35.4% | $70 |
| Oct 24, 04:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 64.9% | $325 |
| Oct 24, 03:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.3% | $31 |
| Oct 24, 01:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.3% | $195 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Oil ≥ $85; D Senate at 64.6%. Next is Oil ≥ $85; R Senate at 28.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-wins-the-senate-pending-oil-below-85-before-the-midterms?via=bro
$1.18M in total volume, with $22.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate, priced at 64.6% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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