As of October 24, 2026, 06:32 PM ET, Polymarket traders price #3 at 25.0% in Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? — $283.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, #3, is priced at 25.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: +5.5 pts; past month: +12.5 pts.
Since July 10, 2026, #3 has traded between 10.5% and 48.5%. It opened at 26.5% and last traded at 25.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 23.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 27.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 25.0% |
#3 is favored at 25.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 | 25¢ | 25.0% | -1.0 pts | $79.1K | 27.9% |
| #1 | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $104.6K | 37.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 24¢ / ask 26¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$283.0K has been traded on this event in total, $914 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks within the top 3, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies one of the top three positions under this ranking system. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,131 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hideous-Racer | No | 2,131 | $1.6K |
| Willing-Arm | No | 1,685 | $1.3K |
| Rusty-Canoe | No | 1,660 | $1.2K |
| Insistent-Conviction | Yes | 1,429 | $357 |
| Normal-Poet | No | 1,423 | $1.1K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 1,395 | $349 |
| Flamboyant-Night | No | 1,222 | $917 |
| Slimy-Incompetence | Yes | 1,045 | $261 |
| Hard-Boat | Yes | 971 | $243 |
| Giving-Task | No | 828 | $621 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 10:47 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 07:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $57 |
| Oct 23, 07:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 07:31 PM ET | No | SELL | 71.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 07:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 71.5% | $211 |
| Oct 23, 07:30 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 07:29 PM ET | No | SELL | 73.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 07:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 76.0% | $55 |
| Oct 23, 07:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 24.1% | $20 |
| Oct 23, 07:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 75.6% | $100 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is #3 at 25.0%. Next is #1 at 7.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-chinese-company-have-the-best-ai-model-by-december-31?via=bro
$283.0K in total volume, with $914 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/.
#3, priced at 25.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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