As of October 24, 2026, 08:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.0% in Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027? — $3.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.6 pts; past week: -8.0 pts; past month: -10.6 pts.
Since November 14, 2025, No has traded between 72.5% and 98.7%. It opened at 72.5% and last traded at 92.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 87.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 91.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 88.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 92.8% |
No is favored at 98.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.0% | +5.6 pts | $3.6K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 2.0% | -5.6 pts | $3.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 0¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.6K has been traded on this event in total, $31 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an AI model which is a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) has the highest score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process. Results from the "Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.
Resolution source: https://lmarena.ai/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 691 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scientific-Sophomore | No | 691 | $677 |
| Unwelcome-Dollop | Yes | 488 | $10 |
| Compassionate-Kneejerk | No | 362 | $355 |
| Pleased-Danger | Yes | 232 | $5 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 217 | $4 |
| Playful-Badger | No | 183 | $179 |
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 171 | $168 |
| Thorough-Legging | Yes | 106 | $2 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 100 | $2 |
| Pleasing-Elm | Yes | 81 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $30 |
| Oct 15, 07:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.3% | $10 |
| Oct 12, 06:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.4% | $1 |
| Oct 07, 05:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.4% | $1 |
| Oct 05, 02:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.9% | $1 |
| Oct 01, 09:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.9% | $50 |
| Oct 01, 03:11 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.7% | $60 |
| Sep 30, 02:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $25 |
| Sep 23, 07:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.2% | $1 |
| Sep 23, 12:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 75.3% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.0%. Next is Yes at 2.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-dllm-be-the-top-ai-model-before-2027?via=bro
$3.6K in total volume, with $31 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://lmarena.ai/.
No, priced at 98.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.