As of October 24, 2026, 08:05 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 27.5% in Will a new country buy Bitcoin by...? — $30.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 27.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -2.0 pts; past month: +3.5 pts.
Since November 13, 2025, December 31, 2026 has traded between 15.0% and 82.0%. It opened at 60.0% and last traded at 27.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 31.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 27.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 27.5% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 27.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 28¢ | 27.5% | +0.5 pts | $22.7K | 73.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 25¢ (bid 15¢ / ask 40¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$30.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes"). A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 100 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plush-Dirt | No | 100 | $73 |
| Subdued-Revenant | No | 65 | $47 |
| Canine-Representative | Yes | 54 | $15 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 34 | $9 |
| Silver-Everything | Yes | 29 | $8 |
| Teeming-Puppet | No | 28 | $20 |
| Punctual-Hydrogen | No | 27 | $20 |
| Far-Flung-Weird | Yes | 25 | $7 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 18 | $5 |
| Shameful-Testimonial | Yes | 16 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 08, 05:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.0% | $3 |
| Aug 30, 07:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.0% | $0 |
| Aug 12, 10:48 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $4 |
| Aug 12, 09:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $4 |
| Aug 05, 06:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $2 |
| Jul 27, 06:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $1 |
| Jul 24, 06:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $2 |
| Jul 18, 10:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $1 |
| Jul 16, 10:55 PM ET | No | SELL | 70.0% | $3 |
| Jul 09, 12:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 27.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-new-country-buy-bitcoin-by-184?via=bro
$30.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 27.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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