As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 97.1% in Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? — $215.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 97.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.1 pts; past week: -0.3 pts; past month: -2.5 pts.
Since November 13, 2025, No has traded between 71.0% and 98.2%. It opened at 74.0% and last traded at 98.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.2% |
No is favored at 97.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 97¢ | 97.1% | -1.1 pts | $215.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 3¢ | 2.9% | +1.1 pts | $215.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$215.3K has been traded on this event in total, $10 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution source: https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,435 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Married-Tenement | No | 1,435 | $1.4K |
| Vengeful-Glockenspiel | Yes | 539 | $16 |
| Enchanted-Plaintiff | Yes | 460 | $13 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 441 | $13 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 407 | $12 |
| Amusing-Good | No | 388 | $377 |
| Dreary-Main | Yes | 280 | $8 |
| Milky-Lead | No | 228 | $221 |
| Wry-Elm | No | 182 | $176 |
| Flashy-Label | No | 178 | $173 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.5% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 07:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.4% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 02:47 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.6% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 02:47 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.3% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 02:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.3% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 08:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.1% | $28 |
| Oct 23, 04:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.1% | $9 |
| Oct 15, 05:01 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.4% | $16 |
| Oct 13, 10:10 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.4% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 08:43 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 97.1%. Next is Yes at 2.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027?via=bro
$215.3K in total volume, with $10 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/.
No, priced at 97.1% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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