As of October 24, 2026, 08:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.4% in Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? — $43.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.2 pts; past month: -1.3 pts.
Since December 11, 2025, No has traded between 83.0% and 96.8%. It opened at 83.0% and last traded at 94.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.4% |
No is favored at 94.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 94.4% | — | $43.6K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 5.6% | — | $43.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$43.6K has been traded on this event in total, $10 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The charge or indictment of a company or organization behind the AI or large language model will not be sufficient. Charges or indictments must be of the AI or LLM itself. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,358 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flat-Badger | No | 1,358 | $1.3K |
| Prickly-Signup | No | 1,257 | $1.2K |
| Snarling-Veil | No | 1,035 | $977 |
| Rural-Cholesterol | Yes | 995 | $56 |
| Gummy-Tentacle | Yes | 981 | $55 |
| Witty-Teriyaki | Yes | 965 | $54 |
| Mountainous-Forgery | Yes | 910 | $51 |
| Monstrous-Dew | Yes | 824 | $46 |
| Homely-Amenity | No | 808 | $763 |
| Thorough-Legging | Yes | 765 | $43 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 09:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.1% | $9 |
| Oct 22, 10:19 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.1% | $146 |
| Oct 20, 03:48 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.3% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 02:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.7% | $166 |
| Oct 13, 08:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.6% | $300 |
| Oct 13, 08:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.5% | $100 |
| Oct 10, 10:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.7% | $0 |
| Oct 10, 01:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.8% | $0 |
| Oct 05, 11:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.3% | $20 |
| Oct 03, 10:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.7% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.4%. Next is Yes at 5.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ai-be-charged-with-a-crime-before-2027?via=bro
$43.6K in total volume, with $10 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.4% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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