Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Alberta join the US?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 97.8% in Will Alberta join the US? — $2.19M traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
98%
A 97.8% price implies roughly a 98-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +0.4 pts30D +1.4 pts
No97.8%
Yes2.2%
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since February 06, 2026: 92.5% – 99.5% · Opened at 92.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Alberta join the US?
Category
Politics, Trump, Greenland, World, Geopolitics, Canada, annex, acquire
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$2.19M
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$38.8K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 97.8%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 97.8%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.4 pts; past month: +1.4 pts.

Since February 06, 2026, No has traded between 92.5% and 99.5%. It opened at 92.5% and last traded at 97.8%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202699.0%
Oct 15, 202698.2%
Oct 16, 202698.2%
Oct 18, 202698.7%
Oct 19, 202698.2%
Oct 20, 202698.2%
Oct 24, 202697.8%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 97.8%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No98¢97.8%—$2.19M100.0%
Yes2¢2.2%—$2.19M100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$2.19M has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 9,467 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Idealistic-FavoriteYes9,467$208
Torn-ManicureNo2,835$2.8K
Vital-BrowserNo2,289$2.2K
Practical-AlcoholNo1,449$1.4K
Minty-VaneNo1,423$1.4K
Pleased-OutlineYes1,417$31
0x8931aa50…No1,170$1.1K
0x5e296339…Yes1,125$25
Female-LeadershipNo1,000$978
Gorgeous-Cry-DepthNo889$870

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $978 at 97.8%BUY No — $435 at 98.1%SELL No — $77 at 99.1%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 22, 05:05 PM ETNoBUY98.2%$20
Oct 22, 04:43 PM ETNoBUY98.2%$20
Oct 22, 04:36 PM ETNoBUY98.2%$22
Oct 21, 02:27 PM ETYesBUY1.8%$1
Oct 18, 03:59 PM ETNoBUY98.3%$5
Oct 18, 03:33 PM ETNoBUY98.4%$25
Oct 18, 11:30 AM ETNoSELL98.0%$5
Oct 17, 07:21 AM ETYesSELL0.9%$2
Oct 15, 06:26 PM ETNoBUY98.2%$39
Oct 15, 05:25 AM ETNoBUY98.2%$39

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Alberta join the US??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 97.8%. Next is Yes at 2.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-alberta-join-the-us?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Alberta join the US??

$2.19M in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Alberta join the US? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Alberta join the US?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 97.8% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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