As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 97.8% in Will Alberta join the US? — $2.19M traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 97.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.4 pts; past month: +1.4 pts.
Since February 06, 2026, No has traded between 92.5% and 99.5%. It opened at 92.5% and last traded at 97.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 99.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.8% |
No is favored at 97.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 97.8% | — | $2.19M | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 2.2% | — | $2.19M | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.19M has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 9,467 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Idealistic-Favorite | Yes | 9,467 | $208 |
| Torn-Manicure | No | 2,835 | $2.8K |
| Vital-Browser | No | 2,289 | $2.2K |
| Practical-Alcohol | No | 1,449 | $1.4K |
| Minty-Vane | No | 1,423 | $1.4K |
| Pleased-Outline | Yes | 1,417 | $31 |
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 1,170 | $1.1K |
| 0x5e296339… | Yes | 1,125 | $25 |
| Female-Leadership | No | 1,000 | $978 |
| Gorgeous-Cry-Depth | No | 889 | $870 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 05:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 04:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 04:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $22 |
| Oct 21, 02:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.8% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 03:59 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.3% | $5 |
| Oct 18, 03:33 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.4% | $25 |
| Oct 18, 11:30 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $5 |
| Oct 17, 07:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.9% | $2 |
| Oct 15, 06:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $39 |
| Oct 15, 05:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $39 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 97.8%. Next is Yes at 2.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-alberta-join-the-us?via=bro
$2.19M in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 97.8% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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