As of October 24, 2026, 08:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 14.5B at 87.5% in Will Altria (MO) Q3 total domestic cigarettes shipment volume (sticks in billions) be above __? — $3.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 14.5B, is priced at 87.5%.
Since October 14, 2026, 14.5B has traded between 83.0% and 93.0%. It opened at 83.0% and last traded at 87.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 88.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 88.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 87.5% |
14.5B is favored at 87.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.5B | 88¢ | 87.5% | — | $819 | 22.5% |
| 15B | 71¢ | 71.0% | -12.5 pts | $725 | 19.9% |
| 15.5B | 65¢ | 65.0% | -5.0 pts | $1.7K | 46.8% |
| 16B | 20¢ | 19.5% | — | $391 | 10.8% |
| 16.5B | 12¢ | 11.5% | -8.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 19¢ (bid 78¢ / ask 97¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.6K has been traded on this event in total, $44 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 09:30 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Altria's total domestic cigarettes shipment volume (sticks in billions) for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 306 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 306 | $38 |
| Powerless-Bijou | Yes | 107 | $94 |
| Expensive-Arrow-Nightclub | Yes | 82 | $72 |
| Dense-Whip | Yes | 61 | $53 |
| Grumpy-Invader | Yes | 50 | $44 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 27 | $3 |
| Amazing-Antelope-Shakedown | Yes | 22 | $19 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 20 | $18 |
| Glamorous-Maternity-Anxiety | No | 9 | $1 |
| Fixed-Eaglet | Yes | 2 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:32 AM ET | No | SELL | 6.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 28.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 28.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:06 AM ET | No | SELL | 8.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 01:33 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 64.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:28 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 64.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 11:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 69.0% | $34 |
| Oct 22, 01:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 06:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 78.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 10:30 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 93.6% | $21 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is 14.5B at 87.5%. Next is 15B at 71.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-altria-mo-q3-total-domestic-cigarettes-shipment-volume-sticks-in-billions-be-above-20261008120107000?via=bro
$3.6K in total volume, with $44 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 09:30 AM ET.
14.5B, priced at 87.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.